Paul M I agree, you hit the nail on the head. If the US dollar remains lower that should at least hold the line on the economy and if they start to wind down their military operations they should be back to zero trade deficit and hopefully avoid recession.
Please note the last paragraph.
What they are not saying is that Boeing reported a huge aircraft sale to China.
What that means is that almost ALL of the wonderful increase in exports was in fact due to the Chinese using some of their US dollars to buy Boeing planes.
AND that the REAL trade imbalance with China was $1.4 Billion would have been much worse than reported.
Did you know that Boeing has also agreed to BUILD their planes in China?
This is a small piece of a major long term shift. It's not that the worlds foremost "developed" country is falling down, but rather that the rest of the "developing" world are finally beginning a long rise and are continuing to find some footing. Good for them!