Canada PoliticsOntario byelections another test for PC leader Tim Hudak
Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne has announced a date for two byelections to fill the seats vacated by retired MPPs Peter Shurman (PC) and Kim Craitor (Lib).
Residents of Niagara Falls and Thornhill will head to the polls on February 13th for votes widely seen as precursors to a general election sometime later this year.
The byelections are also another big test for Tory leader Tim Hudak.
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Hudak, who has led the Progressive Conservatives since 2009, still hasn't proven that he can win when it counts; his record is strewn with failures.
Some conservatives still blame him for not dislodging the Liberals from power in 2011, despite a double-digit lead in the polls just 12 weeks before the general election.
Since then, the party has fumbled and bumbled their way through two sets of byelctions.
In 2012, then-premier Dalton McGuinty orchestrated two byelections in order to put an end to a dysfunctional minority legislature. While McGuinty didn't succeed, neither did Hudak. The Liberals won in Vaughn but lost in Kitchener-Waterloo to the NDP candidate Catherine Fife.
Then, last summer, the Tories were the big losers on a night of five byelections.
Heading into the vote, all circumstances seemed to favour the Tories. They were up against a 10 year old tired government who has been mired in a gas plant scandal. Some analysts even suggested that the PCs could win four out of the five byelections.
But it was not to be. The Liberals and New Democrats each won two seats, while Hudak's Tories won just one — in Etobicoke-Lakeshore — on the back of their very popular local candidate, former deputy Toronto Mayor Doug Holyday.
The byelection results spurred at least two separate movements attempting to force a leadership review at a PC party meeting in September.
Hudak, obviously, survived the pseudo-leadership revolt.
Whether he deserves it or not, he is going to get another chance.
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While byelection results are difficult to predict, pundits have suggested that the Tories are the favourites to win in Niagara Falls.
If they don't win at least one seat on February 13th, however, it's going to become very difficult for a Hudak-led PC party to win a general election.
As explained by the Globe and Mail's Adam Radwanski, another poor byelection showing will buoy the Hudak detractors.
The problem for Mr. Hudak, though, is that after more than a decade out of power his party is short on patience, and it’s rife with malcontents ready to send friendly fire in his direction. As they demonstrated last year, those critics aren’t necessarily looking for a perfect reason to go after him – just a plausible one.
Even if they get that opportunity again, they probably won’t succeed in actually ousting Mr. Hudak. But they could at least cause talk-radio shows and the cover of the Toronto Sun to again be lit up with attacks on him, which is the last thing he’ll need at a time when he’ll be trying to get his party’s base motivated for the main event.
In other words, during this 28-day byelection campaign, all the pressure is on Tim Hudak.
(Photo courtesy of the Canadian Press)
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