Ontario Liberals release budget; will it wow NDP’s Andrea Horwath?

As Ontario’s Liberal government announced its latest budget on Thursday, detailing a $127.6-billion plan to drop automobile insurance rate, invest in youth employment and improve transit planning, discerning viewers couldn’t help but ask themselves: Is it enough?

Are the spending strategies and savings plans detailed in the budget enough to convince the Progressive Conservatives and New Democrats to give even the most tacit approval, survive a confidence motion and give newly-minted Premier Kathleen Wynne a real opportunity to right a listing ship?

Ontario faces an $11.7 billion deficit this fiscal year and, while buoyed by the announcement that the province only went into the red by $9.5 billion last year, it has a long way to go to reach its promise of a balanced budget in 2017-18.

"It is in every sense Ontario’s budget. It speaks to their values…. A budget that speaks to the values of Ontario’s government and its new premier," Finance Minister Charles Sousa said while announcing details of the plan at Queen’s Park.

[ Related: Ontario’s opposition stake ground ahead of budget ]

The fate of the Liberal government and their budget rest in the hands of a split legislatures. The Liberals hold 51 of 107 seats at Queen’s Park, fewer than the combined total of the 36 Conservatives MPPs and the NDP’s 18 seats combined. Two seats currently sit empty.

Conservative Leader Tim Hudak has already announced his party would not support the budget, saying the Liberals have lost the “moral authority” to govern. If the NDP decide to similarly oppose the Liberal budget, the government could fall on a vote of no-confidence.

The Liberal Party of Ontario has been on shaky footing since they were reduced to a minority government in 2011. Dalton McGuinty announced his resignation in October, amid pressure from teachers’ unions furious over a bill that froze salaries and stripped them of their right to strike.

The party elected Kathleen Wynne, a former minister of municipal affairs and education, as the new leader and premier in February. But the change of tact has done little to slow Conservatives attack, specifically targeting two gas plants expensively cancelled at politically opportune moments.

While Hudak has refused to consider what may be in the budget, the NDP’s Andrea Horwath has said she would take her time to weigh its value.

The budget announcement was highlighted by several NDP-friendly motions, including a plan to decrease auto insurance rates by an average of 15 per cent, and $295 million investment in helping Ontario youth find stable employment.

CTVNews.ca’s Andrea Janus writes that the budget contains nearly $1 billion over the next five years directed toward meeting demands made by NDP Leader Andrea Horwath.

[ Political Points: What to expect from Ontario’s budget ]

That spending includes the cost of cutting auto insurance rates by an average of 15 per cent, saving nine million drivers an average annual $225 per vehicle. The budget also includes $295 million in support for a youth employment fund and $260 million to improve home care assistance.

Another key announcement was an increase in the Employer Health Tax exemption, which went from $400,000 to $450,000 for small businesses while being removed from companies that make more than $5 million per year.

Another major announcement was a plan to change “High Occupancy Vehicle” lanes to toll lanes, allowing people to use them for a fee – which would be redirected into transit spending. Horwath may not be excited about tolls, but an investment in transit should ring true for her party supporters.

Indeed, the budget was considered so NDP-friendly that Sousa had hinted his party would be comfortable campaigning on it. “I would say that this is a platform for the people of Ontario,” Sousa said on Wednesday. “The NDP have made some requests. We’ve met all those requests and much more.”

Only time will tell if opposition parties combine to oppose the budget. In 2011, the NDP elected to sit out of the budget vote rather than oppose it after extensive back-and-forth with the McGuinty-led government. The abstinence allowed the Liberals to survive the confidence vote and earned NDP supporters some hard-won changes.