New poll has Quebec Liberals hovering in majority territory

Three weeks ago, the Parti Quebecois was sitting pretty atop the opinion polls with analysts predicting that they'd win a majority government.

My, how things can change in politics — especially in Quebec — in just a couple of weeks.

According to a new Leger/Journal de Montreal poll, released on Tuesday, Philippe Couillard's Liberals are now the ones with a commanding lead heading into the April 7th election.

The poll has the Liberals at 40 per cent support, the PQ at 33 per cent and the Coaltion Avenir Quebec at 15 per cent.

More importantly, according to polling analyst Bryan Breguet, the latest popular support numbers put the Liberals in a position to win a majority government for the first time in this race: he pegs the seat count at 64 for the Liberals, 54 for the PQ, 5 for the CAQ and 2 for Quebec Solidaire.

If the numbers hold, it would be an epic failure on behalf of the PQ.

[ Related: Did the Parti Quebecois jump the shark? ]

The PQ campaign seemed to go off the rails, two weeks ago, when media mogul Pierre Karl Peladeau became a candidate for them proclaiming that he wanted an independent Quebec.

His entrance into the race put the focus of their campaign back onto sovereignty — an issue, according to Quebec based pundits, Quebecers don't want to deal with.

The PQ's dwindling support might also be attributed to some of their controversial candidates.

Last week, their candidate for Lafontaine, Jean Carriere, was forced to resign after a reporter found an old Facebook image of a half-naked woman with text that read "F#$% Islam."

They also had to go in defence-mode over Gouin candidate Louise Mailloux who — according to the Montreal Gazette — had once described baptism and circumcision as rape and claimed kosher and halal foods fund religious wars.

Mailloux hasn't been forced to resign but is the subject of a petition to oust her.

And then there was the leaders' debate last Thursday. While Couillard stayed calm and cool throughout, Marois was unable to avoid the sovereignty question.

"Marois looked agitated and angry, gesticulating when she spoke and staring at the others with narrowed eyes and pinched lips when she wasn’t trying to prevent them from being heard," the Montreal Gazette's Don Macpherson wrote.

"From early in the debate, her body language said she felt as though she was in trouble. Couillard, on the other hand, was calm and rarely raised his voice. That is, the opposition leader looked and sounded like a premier, and the premier like an opposition leader."

[ Related: Values charter to take centre stage in second half of Quebec election ]

Marois will have an opportunity to redeem herself and get her party's campaign back on the tracks on Thursday, the date of the second and final televised leadership debate.

(Photo courtesy of the Canadian Press)

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