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What’s in store for Senators Duffy, Harb and Brazeau?

Over the past month, Canadians have learned about the RCMP queries into the expense claims of Senators Mac Harb, Mike Duffy and Patrick Brazeau.

Via affidavits filed with an Ottawa court, we know that the Mounties are investigating each of them — for an alleged breach of trust — for falsely claiming housing expenses reserved for those senators who live 100 kilometres outside the nation's capital.

The police suggest that Brazeau lived in Gatineau — just 10 kilometres away from Ottawa — while claiming he lived with his dad in Maniwaki, Quebec.

They allege that Harb improperly received the $22,000/year allowance while claiming an"uninhabitable home" as his primary residence.

And Duffy is being investigated for for spending most of his time in Ottawa — not in PEI — and for accepting a $90,000 'gift' from the prime minister's former chief of staff to repay the Senate.

On Thursday, CTV News reported that the RCMP is now seeking Duffy's personal bank records.

[ Related: RCMP seek Duffy's personal banking, credit card records ]

To date, no charges have been laid and nothing has been proven in a court of law.

But what will happen in the weeks and months ahead? How long will this all take? If charged and found guilty, will the 'naughty' senators actually be punished or will this all be swept under the rug?

Yahoo! Canada News asked those questions, and more, to two learned attorneys: David Debenham, a partner at Ottawa-based McMillan and Robert Janes, a litigator with Janes Freedman Kyle in Victoria.

We've included their thoughts below:

How long will the police investigations last?

The first official confirmation of police investigations, into the three senators' expenses, came in early June.

Debenham says that it's tough to say how long the investigations will last.

"The speed is a function of the scope and complexity of the subject matter divided by the amount of resources the RCMP assigns to the investigation," he told Yahoo! Canada News.

"It could be a few months to over a year."

Janes says that he doesn't expect the investigation to last much more than a few months. He notes that there is likely as sense of urgency, on behalf of police, because no one wants to "leave a cloud hanging" over the senate.

How long would court cases last?

Debenham says that once the individual investigations are complete, the RCMP will make a decision on whether there is enough evidence to prosecute.

"If there is [enough evidence], the Crown prosecutor forms its own independent assessment as to whether there is a reasonable prospect of conviction. If so the prosecution proceeds," he said.

Both experts believe that the court cases would be scheduled within 12 to 18 months of charges being laid.

Debenham suggests the length of trials would be similar to former Ottawa mayor Larry O'Brian's trial. O'Brian was accused of influence peddling in 2009. His trial included 16 days of testimony and cost taxpayers between $200,000 and $300,000.

Penalties?

Certainly, this is a long way off and is in the realm of hypothetical.

But, if one or all of the senators is charged and convicted what happens? Will they be fined? Put in jail? Put on probation?

Debenham suggests that while jail time is possible, it's unlikely.

"Fines, jail time, restitution, suspended sentence, probation—all are possible," he said.

"You have to weigh good character, public service and first offence against the seriousness of a breach of the public trust.

"In this case the outstanding service each of these gentlemen have given to their country, each after such humble beginnings, weighs heavily in favour of a non-custodial sentence."

Janes claims that jail time is conceivable.

"If breach of trust or fraud charges are laid and proven jail time is very possible," he told Yahoo! News.

"This is extremely difficult to predict though as there may be extenuating circumstances such [as] unclear rules or internal practices."

[ Related: $532,568:Taxpayer watchdog calculates pension benefit of Senator Rod Zimmer’s young wife ]

There is, of course, a recent precedent of a Canadian senator being put 'in the slammer.'

In June of this year, former senator Raymond Lavigne was sentenced to six months in jail and six months house arrest.

"The one-time Liberal MP was convicted of fraud for claiming travel expenses for trips actually taken by his staffers," explained the Canadian Press, noting that he resigned from the Senate just 10 days after being convicted.

"He was [also] convicted of breach of trust for having his staff work on his personal farm while on taxpayer time."

Unfortunately, for Canadian taxpayers, Lavigne will still earn a pension "that could reach $79,000 a year."

(Photo courtesy of the Canadian Press)

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