Waiting to exhale: Federal Tories likely relieved at Christy Clark’s surprise win

That sound you heard late Tuesday night were collective sighs of relief in Ottawa as Stephen Harper and his Conservative government watched B.C. Premier Christy Clark defy the polls and lead her Liberal party to an unexpected fourth term in government.

Clark may have lost her own seat to the NDP's David Eby, a popular civil rights lawyer, but a quick byelection in a safe Liberal seat will fix that.

A New Democrat victory in the B.C. election would have put a stick in the spokes of Harper's resource-based economic development policy.

The Tories are especially counting on oil sands exports to generate jobs. NDP leader Adrian Dix had already nixed a proposal to expand Kinder Morgan's existing Trans Mountain pipeline to Vancouver and seemed ready to block Enbridge Inc.'s massive Northern Gateway project, involving a pipeline across northern B.C. and an export terminal near Kitimat. Both face broad opposition from area residents.

Clark has not pronounced on the Kinder Morgan project and has not ruled out Northern Gateway once a joint environmental review is completed near the end of this year, if her conditions for the project, including a "fair share" for B.C., are met.

The premier's decisive victory — the Liberals actually gained five seats while the NDP lost three — presumably gives her a mandate to negotiate a deal with Ottawa (and Alberta) on Northern Gateway despite entrenched opposition from environmentalists and First Nations.

[ Related: NDP Leader Adrian Dix concedes defeat in B.C. election ]

Bill Tieleman, a pundit and former NDP strategist, told Daily Brew the Liberal win gives both projects a major boost. Warren Kinsella, a former federal Liberal back-room operative and now Sun News Network commentator, suggested Clark's obstructionist stance was more political than real.

"I always suspected her opposition had more to do with the election than conviction," Kinsella told Yahoo Canada News. "I wouldn't be surprised to see her bought off, once she byelections herself back into the legislature."

But there's still some concern next door in Alberta. The relationship between Clark and Premier Alison Redford is reportedly very chilly because of the B.C. premier's foot-dragging on Northern Gateway and her refusal to endorse Redford's National Energy Strategy.

In her congratulatory statement, Redford said she looks forward to improved co-operation and for "renewing discussions" on the projects, the Calgary Herald reported.

“Our provinces’ proud history of co-operation has led to economic growth, job creation and an unparalleled quality of life for the people who live within our borders,” Redford said in her statement, pointing to interprovincial agreements on trade and labour mobility.

“I know we can do more together. As Canada moves to seize new opportunities and open new global markets, I look forward to renewing discussions with British Columbia about the issues that affect our provinces."

Globe and Mail political columnist John Ibbitson noted Dix also had reservations about drug-patent protection provisions in the proposed free-trade deal between Canada and the European Union.

"That’s another bullet that the Conservatives have dodged," he wrote.

"On issues from health care to native rights, Mr. Dix would have been a powerful new progressive voice: smart, youthful, comfortable on the national stage, fluently bilingual, a major new force confronting the Conservatives. Except now he’s not."

National Post columnist Kelly McParland said Clark's victory should also give federal NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair pause if he thinks his official Opposition is a government-in-waiting.

"The messages to Mr. Mulcair are numerous," McParland wrote. "For one, it’s a reminder that polls taken in the middle of a government’s mandate are largely meaningless. Ottawa has abounded recently with pundits pointing to negative polls as evidence of real problems within the Conservative government, suggesting the prime minister is drifting, or has lost his way.

"B.C. demonstrates once again that voters may say one thing to pollsters, but act differently when it comes time to cast a ballot and choose which party they are willing to trust with their future."

[ Related: West Coast pipelines still face hurdles after Liberals' win ]

Dix's "open hostility" to energy development also played into voter concerns about the economy, he suggested.

"People worry more about their jobs and their mortgages than they do about other issues, and the poor record of past NDP governments, combined with nervousness about Mr. Dix’s platform, overcame very real dissatisfaction with the Liberals."

Harper put out a brief statement Wednesday congratulating Christy Clark for her victory, a statement which avoided mentioning the B.C. Liberal party at all, which even Redford managed to do.

"Yesterday, the people of British Columbia gave Christy Clark a mandate to continue serving as their premier," Harper said. "On behalf of the Government of Canada, I offer my sincere congratulations to her and her team on their election victory.

"I look forward to continuing to work with Premier Clark on issues that matter to British Columbians and all Canadians, including jobs, growth and long-term economic prosperity."

The B.C. Liberals are a free-enterprise coalition of federal Liberal and Conservative supporters. Clark hails from the Liberal wing but got impressive support from federal Tories, including former ministers Stockwell Day and Chuck Strahl.

Kinsella told Yahoo! Canada News he thinks the B.C. Liberals are "for all intents are purposes, the provincial arm of the federal Conservatives." Tieleman said federal Liberals are still an equally important component of the provincial party, but he expects it will change its name "to something more neutral" before the next election in 2017.