Four key factors playing out in Ontario’s byelection

Voters in five regions of Ontario are already heading to the voting booths to choose new provincial representatives. In five byelections, in five different areas of the province: two in Toronto and one in each of Ottawa, London and Windsor.

Regardless of the results, Premier Kathleen Wynne will maintain control of a Liberal minority government, but the tides of change begin with the most gentle of waves. A legislature beset by controversy, questions swirling over a gas plant cancellation scandal and a tumultuous relationship with Toronto City Hall. Yet these are the first tests of Wynne’s leadership and some feel her popularity could help win the day.

Polls suggest otherwise, but the only poll that matters in on Election Day. We’ll have to wait until tonight to learn the province’s fate. Until then, here are four factors playing out in today’s Ontario byelections.

Kathleen Wynne and the power of positive thinking

This set of byelections will by the first test against Wynne since she assumed party leadership earlier this year, and it clearly won't be an easy one for her. She has been hammered by opposition over her role in previous party sins, and the ever-giving gas plant scandal hasn't really afforded her much time to breathe.

Still, Wynne's personal brand holds strong. An Abacus Data poll taken in May placed her as the most popular of Ontario's three party leaders.

But things haven't gone smoothly for her since then, and now party insiders are downplaying expectations. The Globe and Mail was told the Liberals now only expect to hold one or two of the seats, having apparently abandoned Windsor-Tecumseh almost entirely. Downplaying expectations is expected, but there's something to be said about positive thinking.

[ More Brew: Liberals face tough challenge with Ontario byelections ]

Dalton McGuinty and the Gas Plant Scandal

On the other side of the coin, this byelection will in many ways comes down to how voters remember former premier Dalton McGuinty, whose time in office will be cynically bookended by the gas plant cancellation scandal plaguing the Liberals since the 2011 election.

His decision not to apologize for the controversy, and more recent reports that he attempted to influence the Speaker’s ruling on the matter, has his legacy further in question.

In Ottawa South, where the McGuinty family name has held cache for more than two decades, this battle is playing out directly. John Fraser, his former aide, is trailing Conservative candidate Matt Young by 14 points in the latest poll, with Young making the gas plant scandal a central issue.

In London West, a riding left vacant by the resignation of former energy minister Chris Bentley, the effects may also be felt. Liberal Ken Coran is running third behind both the Conservatives and NDP. The McGuinty factor is also in play in other ridings, of course, with the Conservatives championing the narrative of battling a corrupt government.

[ Politics: Rob Ford compares voting Liberal to giving a robber another gun ]

The influence of Toronto City Hall

Earlier this week, Toronto Mayor Rob Ford compared voting for the Liberals to giving a bank robber another gun. This nugget came as the mayor spent days campaigning on behalf of Conservative Scarborough-Guildwood candidate Ken Kirupa. Liberal candidate Mitzie Hunter still holds a slight lead going into Election Day, but Adam Giambrone, a former mayoral candidate now running for the NDP, was also expected to pull in a decent slice of the vote.

Such is the power of influence from Toronto City Hall, specifically in the two byelections within city limits.

In the other Toronto riding, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, that influence is seen in the direct battle between two municipal stalwarts. Conservative candidate Doug Holyday, the current deputy mayor (and former Etobicoke mayor), is in a virtual tie with longtime Coun. Peter Milczyn, the Liberal candidate.

Both have a history of voting with the Ford agenda at city hall. But with Holyday standing closest to Ford, he is expected to reap any potential benefits. He has also been accused of abusing his authority at city hall, using a city-contracted garbage truck at one campaign photo op and posing for campaign photos in out-of-bounds areas of the Toronto subway system.

If the Tories were to secure a win in either of those Toronto ridings, it would be a significant foothold in the Toronto area, and would be partially credited to the popularity of the mayor.

The timing of the Ontario byelections

The decision to hold the five byelections just days before the long weekend has been panned as a calculated effort to keep voting turnout low. Slowed summer scheduled and vacations tend to cut down the number of people who come out to vote, which already tends to be lower for byelections. "Ms. Wynne has decided that she would like to subvert democracy," Progressive Conservative Lisa MacLeod told CBC News.

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath called the timing "opportunistic". Low voting turnout tends to favour the incumbent, which, in each of the five byelections, is the Liberal Party. And if voting turnout is low, all those sour-sounding polls might end up being irrelevant.

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