Hurricane Leslie’s path could cast a wide swath from Bermuda to Newfoundland

Forecasters are keeping an eye on Hurricane Leslie, but they are being very cautious about raising any alarms.

Leslie started out a week ago with the austere name 'Tropical Depression 12' and has been moving so slowly since that it's still at the same latitude as Miami, Florida.

The storm's slow advance is why forecasters are being so cautious. Computer models are predicting a very wide 'potential track' for the storm, currently ranging from a direct hit on Halifax, to sweeping over Newfoundland, to just sweeping by out-to-sea. Leslie added to the problem by stalling overnight, moving at only around 3 or 4 km/h.

Hurricanes move due to 'steering currents', which are the prevailing winds around the storm. The major influence over the steering currents, and thus where hurricanes will go, is the Bermuda High (also called the Azores High). This region of high pressure sits over the Atlantic Ocean, swirling the winds in a roughly clockwise direction, and depending on how close it is North America and the exact pressure pattern, it can steer hurricanes into the Gulf of Mexico, or to make landfall on the East Coast, or to just remain out-at-sea.

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Part of the Bermuda High is currently stretching down into Florida, and this is acting to block Leslie's advance for the moment, and could cause the storm to track further west or even backtrack slightly. Once past this block, Leslie will get caught up in the northerly flow again, but what happens to the overall pressure pattern between now and then will have a big influence on where Leslie ends up going afterwards.

Another storm to watch right now is Hurricane Michael. It is even further out-to-sea than Leslie, and is moving very slowly, but what is noteworthy about Michael is that it is the first Category 3 storm of this hurricane season, and its currently projected track has it aimed for roughly the same regions as Leslie.

In all likelihood, Michael will simply swing to the northeast, well-clear of Eastern Canada, and Leslie has a good chance of doing the same, but with the slow progression and wide potential tracks for these storms, its better not to let our guard down just yet.

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