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Ontario Liberals face tough challenge with impending by-elections

By the end of next week, Ontario voters will have selected five new representatives to send to Queen's Park. And those choices could significantly change the way politics is done in the province.

Five ridings — two in Toronto and one in each of Ottawa, London and Windsor — were called for an Aug. 1 by-election after the exit of former Liberal MPPs, many of them high-profile folks who stepped down following a scandal-plagued session.

Indeed, this stack of by-elections may not cause a stampede to the ballot box, but it could have a significant impact on the way the Liberals govern.

These will be the first key tests faced by the government since Kathleen Wynne was selected to replace Dalton McGuinty as premier and Liberal party leader.

And while she strives to separate herself from McGuinty's legacy — specifically the nagging gas plant controversy — her opponents have worked to present them as one and the same.

This by-election will be a litmus test, to determine which side is winning. In early polls, it seems Wynne should have some reason to worry.

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“You know what, the poll is on Aug. 1. We’ll see what the result is. We have very strong candidates in all of our ridings in those byelections and I look forward to the determination on Aug. 1,” Wynne said on Friday, according to the Toronto Star.

“Polls come and go. Am I worried? I’m optimistic about the outcomes."

A Forum Research survey conducted for the Star suggests the Liberals have fallen behind in two key ridings, Toronto's Etobicoke-Lakeshore and Ottawa South, while they appear to be trailing in two other ridings according to recent numbers.

The Forum Research poll found that, in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Progressive Conservative candidate Doug Holyday, Toronto's current deputy mayor, received 47 per cent support while Liberal Peter Milczyn, a city councillor, held 40 per cent support.

In Ottawa, where former premier McGuinty sat for 23 years (and his father for three years before that), Tory Matt Young led Liberal John Fraser 48 per cent to 34 per cent.

The battles in each of those ridings have been tense, with candidates swapping accusations and sharp retorts.

Earlier this week, Milczyn accused Holyday of abusing his position as deputy mayor, calling in a garbage truck adorned with the city logo to appear at a press conference.

Green For Life, the company has been contracted to pick up garbage in the city's west end, told the Toronto Star that they supplied a truck because the city's deputy mayor asked for it. Milczyn has filed a formal complaint with the City of Toronto's Integrity Commissioner over the "potential misuse of city resources."

Holyday's camp dismissed the issue as a diversion tactic.

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Meantime in Ottawa, it was the Conservative candidate floating accusations against his Liberal opponent.

Young demanded Fraser "come clean" about his involvement in the gas plant cancellation scandal. Fraser, a former premier's assistant, has been connected to tapes submitted to an investigation, but the content of the recordings is unknown.

Fraser told the Ottawa Citizen that Young's accusations were an attempt to mislead the public.

“I expected more from my opponent.... It’s what’s wrong with politics,” he told the newspaper.

In the other three ridings facing a by-election, the Liberal candidates face similar threats. Scarborough-Guildwood's Liberal candidate, Mitzie Hunter, leads Conservative Ken Krupa by six percentage points, with NDP Adam Giambrone trailing behind.

In London West, Liberal Ken Coran, a former teachers' union head, trails Tory Ali Chabar and the NDP's Peggy Sattler in a bid to replace former attorney general Chris Bentley.

And in Windsor-Tecumseh, it is NDP candidate Percy Hatfield (with 52 per cent support) leading Conservative Robert de Verteuil and Liberal Jeewan Gill to replace former finance minister Dwight Duncan.

The Liberals won 53 of the province’s 107 seats in the last election, so they are in no danger of losing control of the government. But should Thursday's by-elections go as poorly as it appears possible, there will be some significant questions to answer.

Like how long can Wynne govern as her mandate weakens, and when should a full election be called to staunch the bleeding?

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