Security costs for Toronto’s 2015 Pan Am Games now more than double first estimate

You don't have to be a die-hard cynic to smirk at the latest cost estimate for providing security at next year's Pan Am Games in Toronto.

There's always been a bait-and-switch quality to budget estimates for big sports extravaganzas like the Olympics, Pan-Am Games or World Cup Soccer.

Why we put up with it is another matter.

Ontario's Ministry of Community Safety and Corrections Services issued an updated estimate Monday for keeping everyone safe at the 2015 Pan/Parapan Am Games.

It's now $239 million, up from the previous estimate $206 million and more than double the initial budgeted cost of $113 million, the Toronto Sun reports.

The ministry said in a news release the contract for private security services is almost in place, which is what generated the revised estimate.

"However, Games security planning is ongoing and must respond to the evolving scope and scale of the Games as well as to any specific threats that may be identified in the future," the ministry said.

That's code for, we're not really sure what the actual cost will be.

[ Related: What impact will Toronto Pan Am Games spending flap have on city’s Olympic dreams? ]

The minister, Madeleine Meilleur, said costs could go up even higher if a serious threat to public safety is identified.

“What we want is to make sure our athletes, the coaches, the visitors, the tourists — everybody feels safe and that we have a wonderful Games,” she said, according to the Sun. “If the threat does increase, then the cost may increase.”

The latest estimate for the Games' overall budget puts the cost at $2.5 billion, well above the initial figure $1.4 billion, though it includes construction of an athletes' village that eventually would become affordable housing. Most of the cost will be borne by financially strapped Ontario and Toronto.

The hike in security costs, covering police and private security, probably should have been expected.

The initial security budget for the 2010 Vancouver Olympic Games was estimated to be $175 million. The final tab was around $900 million, as The Canadian Press noted. In their post-Games report, the RCMP noted the original estimate dated from 2001, the year before Vancouver won its bid for the Olympics.

[ Related: Fired Toronto Pan Am Games CEO Ian Troop gets $534,000 in severance ]

It cost $1.6 billion to keep the 2012 London Summer Games safe from terrorists, up from the initial estimate of $361 million, CBC News reported.

Meilleur's ministry said the proposed contract will keep the average daily security costs below those of the Vancouver and London Games, and the G8/G20 summits Ontario hosted a couple of years ago.

Obviously, you have to expect some budget creep from inflation and unexpected circumstances developing in the years between winning an event such as the Pan Am Games (which Toronto secured in 2009) and when the first race is run. Construction costs can rise, for instance.

But security costs ought to be a little more predictable. Why has the cost doubled in five years? Why did the price tag for Vancouver Olympic security more than quadruple?

Government's routinely build contingencies into their budgeting process and spell them out in the official budget estimates. They often get it wrong, too, but at least the protocol is there.

Why can't governments give accurate estimates of Games' costs? Or do they think people just understand that the estimates they provide aren't meant to be taken seriously?