Toronto study casts safety doubts on intersection countdown signals

A Canadian study that concludes pedestrian countdown traffic signals may be doing more harm than good is an interesting look into human psychology.

The National Post reports the study by researchers at Toronto's Hospital for Sick Children has found that rather than making intersection crossings safer, countdown signals may actually lead to more collisions.

We're used to digital countdown timers in different applications, doing everything from telling us how much longer until our mug of coffee's reheated to whether our favourite action hero has enough time to diffuse an explosive device.

The study suggests that, in fact, those pedestrian countdown signals may be ticking time bombs.

The study, published late last month in the medical journal Injury Prevention, re-analyzed data from an earlier study in the same publication that had concluded pedestrian countdown signals (PCS) did not reduce the number of pedestrian-versus-car collisions at the Toronto intersections where they were used.

"The installation of PCS at 1,965 signalised intersections in the city of Toronto resulted in an increase in PMVC [pedestrian-motor vehicle collision] rates post-PCS installation," the data re-evaluation found. "PCSs may have an unintended consequence of increasing pedestrian-motor vehicle collisions in some settings."

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The fresh study found countdown signals were linked to a 26 per cent increase in the rate of collisions and a 50 per cent jump in fatal accidents, the Post reported.

It turns out we treat that countdown kind of the way Jack Bauer treats the timer on a bomb. Instead of making a prudent decision that, hey, I don't think I can make it across in time, we treat the countdown like a challenge and try to beat it. That apparently also applies to drivers who speed up as the timer ticks to zero.

“It doesn’t look like a magic bullet thing for injury reduction,” study co-author Dr. Andrew Howard, a University of Toronto surgery professor and medical director of the Sick Kids trauma program, told the Post.

“People may be spending that information on convenience rather than safety. As the signal goes down … they’re more likely to cross, and cross with less time.”

CityNews Toronto noted the study backs similar findings released last April by two University of Toronto researchers who analyzed crash data from all Toronto intersections from 2004, about two years before the city began installing countdown signals, and 2008. They found intersections with countdown signals averaged 22 more crashes per month, an increase of five per cent.

And Global News reported a study published by Erasmus University in Rotterdam also raised concern that countdown signals caused pedestrians and drivers to speed up.

Of course, this behaviour isn't new. Pedestrians and drivers have used the old-style flashing "Don't Walk" sign as a gauge for when an intersection's traffic light will turn orange.

The results of these studies indicate countdown signals need more evaluation, Peter Karageorgos, spokesman for the Insurance Bureau of Canada, told Global News.

Countdown signals have come into widespread use in the last decade in major cities such as Toronto, Montreal, Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver.

Calgary began installing the devices in 2005 after a pilot study, the city said on its news blog last April, reaching almost 200 out of 1,000 intersections with pedestrian signals.

It said the Transportation Association of Canada, which sets guidelines for using PCS at intersections, citied five Canadian and U.S. studies showing "there were no noticeable changes in vehicle speed, acceleration, signal violation or other vehicle behaviour after pedestrian countdown crossing timers were installed.”

But those conclusions date from 2005. Perhaps pedestrians and drives have adapted to the presence of countdown signals and changed their behaviour.

[ Related: Pedestrian deaths dominate Vancouver traffic fatalities ]

Calgary Transportation Department spokeswoman Jennifer Thompson-Goldberg told the Post her department has determined PCS devices aren't causing more accidents but a study is underway to provide a more precise analysis.

“We have found that they are doing their job,” he said. “They do provide more information for pedestrians on when it is safe for them to cross.”

A study involving PCS installed at 569 San Francisco intersections found pedestrian-injury collisions dropped by 22 per cent, transportation planner Frank Markowitz told the Post. The results differing from Toronto's experience could be down to differences in the way the signals are set, he speculated. San Francisco's PCS units end the countdown before the traffic light turns yellow.

Howard indicated the results of his study don't invalidate the use of PCS. The research shows they do change people's behaviour, he told the Post, so perhaps it's just a matter of tweaking timing to lengthen the gap before the light changes to make them effective.