Tropical Storm Isaac sets its sights on New Orleans

Well, the limb I went out on broke. Tropical Storm Joyce is now just a Post-tropical Depression and isn't even mentioned in the U.S. National Hurricane Center discussions, and Tropical Storm Isaac looks to be strengthening to a Category 1 hurricane as it heads straight for New Orleans.

Originally, Isaac looked like it was going to swing by the west coast of Florida, make landfall on the Florida panhandle and then get caught up in a northeasterly flow. It would have just been a hurricane remnant as it moved up the East Coast, but it looked like everywhere between Mobile, Alabama and St. John's, Newfoundland was going to get a lot of rain. However, as the storm progressed past Haiti and Cuba, the weather pattern ahead of it changed, and the track of the storm shifted further to the west with each updated forecast.

[ Related: Isaac promises drought-relief in south/central U.S ]

When I checked the Environment Canada forecast model on Saturday night, it was the first model I saw that aimed Isaac at New Orleans. I wasn't sure it was right — landfall was still 4 days away — but I speculated to friends about the possibility. By Sunday morning, the U.S. National Hurricane Center had confirmed that track.

As of Sunday night, Isaac just moved past the Florida Keys and should remain a Tropical Storm, with maximum sustained wind speeds of up to 100 km/h, until Monday afternoon. It is predicted to strengthen to a Category 1 Hurricane as of Tuesday morning, with maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h and a projected path that will carry it right over New Orleans. There is even the possibility of it gaining even more strength to become a Category 2 Hurricane just after landfall on Wednesday afternoon, on the 7th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.

Since comparisons are inevitable, when Hurricane Katrina made landfall, it was a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 280 km/h. So it is very unlikely that Isaac will cause a repeat of 2005 for New Orleans. The question being asked, though, is whether New Orleans is ready for another hurricane of any strength.

As of 2010, The National Post and Discovery News were reporting that levies had been rebuilt and strengthened, evacuation plans had been improved, and emergency supplies were more readily available, but the region was still vulnerable, especially those areas outside the city of New Orleans.

The official emergency preparedness site for the City of New Orleans is here.