Climate change won’t slow down winter blizzards: study

Much to the disappointment of winter-weary Canadians, climate change likely won't bring relief from storms during the cold season.

According to a new study published in Nature this week, the rip-roaring blizzards we're all-too-familiar with won’t be disappearing anytime soon. New climate models indicate that the frequency of intense snowstorms in the Northern Hemisphere will not diminish over the coming decades, even in the face of rising global temperatures.

These findings suggest that changes in extreme snowfall are not a good indicator of climate change, says lead author Paul O’Gorman, a climate scientist at MIT.

In Canada, of course, we're well-acquainted with blizzard conditions. Early this year, residents of the Maritimes were slammed by major squalls, particularly in Newfoundland and Labrador. The province suffered through high winds, nearly 40 cm of snow, massive power outages, and rolling blackouts that lasted for days.

The new model does suggest there's Canadians have one thing to look forward to as global temperatures rise: less total snow. “It is possible for certain high-latitude regions to experience decreases in annual snowfall but more intense snowfall extremes,” explained O’Gorman in an interview with Yahoo Canada News.

Even that good news is somewhat tempered. “In regions with extremely-low winter temperatures, both annual snowfall and the intensity of snowfall extremes are expected to increase with global warming,” he said.

The new simulations - which incorporate rising greenhouse gas levels - show that despite average snow volume declining markedly as a result of higher temperatures, exactly how extreme snowfall events will respond remains unclear.

“Observational records of daily snowfall are not as plentiful as for rainfall, and most previous model-based research has focused on average snowfall rather than heavy snowfall events that occur over one or two days,” said O’Gorman.

He was able to study how snowfall extremes respond to climate change in simulations using many of the same established climate models used today, and despite predicted increases in greenhouse gas, O’Gorman’s models show that even by the late-21st century, there should be little change in the frequency of heavy snowfall events.

If his models do prove to be true, we may see long-term decline in snow-packed winters, but those powerful storms won’t abate.

So make sure you keep those shovels and snowblowers handy.