For the threat of asteroid impacts, it’s the politics may doom us all

After last month's meteorite strike over Russia, and with our increased awareness of the 'cosmic shooting gallery' that we live in, it's becoming clear that even though we can develop the technology to deal with these threats, it may be politics that dooms us all.

Although, back in 2005, U.S. lawmakers directed NASA to identify and track 90 per cent of the largest near-Earth objects — those 140 kms wide or larger — officials for the space agency estimate that they have only found 10 per cent of them.

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"Our estimate right now is at the present budget levels it will be 2030 before we're able to reach the 90 percent level as prescribed by Congress," NASA chief Charles Bolden told a congressional hearing on March 19th.

"You all told us to do something, and between the administration and the Congress, the bottom line is the funding did not come," he added.

The problem isn't only an American one, though. The threat of asteroid impacts is a global issue, and it will require a global solution. However, although this opens up more resources and people to do the job, it also involves more, sometimes conflicting, political interests.

"There are a million geopolitical questions that are really, really, really tough," said Rusty Schweickart, co-founder of the B612 Foundation, a nonprofit organization that is currently developing the Sentinel Mission, which will help to identify and track large near-Earth objects. Schweickart is a former U.S. astronaut, who piloted the lunar module on the Apollo 9 mission in 1969.

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"Who does it? Who pays for it? Who handles the liability?" Schweickart said. "How does the decision get made? Do we deflect the 40-meter object, or do we evacuate? Who makes that decision? And who pays for the evacuation? Everybody, because we all collectively made the decision? Or do the people who were unlucky enough to evacuate have to handle the cost?"

"We're going to solve the technology," added Schweickart. "But to get a geopolitical decision made in a timely way, and not just debate all the way down until it's too late to act, is going to be a real challenge."

There are plenty of methods that have been presented, from using nuclear weapons to blow an asteroid off course or reduce it to fragments that would easily burn up in the atmosphere, to using 'paintball' techniques to paint the rock bright and let increased pressure from the Sun's rays push the asteroid off its trajectory, to sending spacecraft to tow, push, or nudge these rocks into safer orbits. However, none of these strategies are ready to go now, and it could be years before we can get them ready.

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When asked by Congress what NASA could do if we discovered that an asteroid was going to strike the Earth in only three weeks, Bolden answered: "The answer to you is, 'if it's coming in three weeks, pray. The reason I can't do anything in the next three weeks is because for decades we have put it off."

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