CALGARY - Some analysts have been warning for months that the price of gasoline could soar to as high as $1.50 a litre in parts of the country this summer.

Now that figure doesn't seem all that far-fetched.

The average pump price in Canada was about $1.26 a litre on Monday - more than 10 cents more than what it was a month ago, according to the price-tracking website Gasbuddy.com.

"I have been forecasting $1.40 to $1.50 for the summer and I think that's looking like it will probably pan out," said Jason Toews, the site's co-founder.

Energy consultant Michael Ervin said prices will continue to climb by "somewhere between 15 and 20 cents a litre for most markets."

In more remote areas drivers can expect to see gas at around $1.50 a litre, he said.

At one full-serve station along Newfoundland's isolated southern coast Monday, drivers were already shelling out $1.52 to fill their tanks.

But Roger McKnight, an analyst with consulting firm EnPro International Inc., said he has been forecasting a national peak of $1.34 for the summer driving season.

"I think the $1.50 is pretty spectacular, headline-grabbing number. I thought that was pretty sensational," he said.

One reason behind the price spike is the fact that crude oil - the raw product from which gasoline is made - has been getting more and more pricey on commodity markets.

On Monday a barrel of crude was trading around US$119 on the New York Mercantile Exchange after inching close to the US$120 mark earlier in the day. That is nearly double what it was a year ago.

But the cost of crude oil is not the only contributor to the price surge, Ervin said.

"Probably the more important factor that is relevant at this time of the year is the actual wholesale gasoline price itself," he said.

Refiners that manufacture fuel from crude oil are only making margins of about 10 cents per litre right now, but as demand picks up in the summer months, it's only a "matter of time" before that goes up to 20 or 25 cents per litre, Ervin said.

"And with that increase in the wholesale price, which is related of course to the increase in the refiner margins, we'll see pump prices increase," he said.

"Although people might be quick to surmise that increase is a result of higher crude prices, that pump price increase, as it does occur through the spring and summer, will outpace the increases that we've seen in crude prices."

The best bargains in Canada on Monday could be found in Alberta, where the province-wide average was $1.20. Prices are generally better in the oil-rich province because the raw product does not have to be transported very far to be sold and because taxes are lower.

Ontario prices were not that bad either, with a provincial average of around $1.21.

But stations in Quebec City were charging upwards of $1.36 and in Vancouver gas was at more than $1.29.

In Nova Scotia drivers were paying as much as $1.34, while in New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island, the price was as high as $1.25. Gas prices are regulated in all four maritime provinces.

Gasbuddy's Toews said drivers should do their homework before planning any cross-Canada road trips this summer, since the price of gas can vary by as much as 30 cents around the country.

"It pays to plan out your trip and know where the cheap gas is," he said.

Consumers aren't the only one's feeling the pinch, said McKnight, whose firm gives advice to companies in the transportation industry.

Trucking companies are passing along fuel surcharges of about 45 per cent to their customers - an "astronomically high" figure, since the charges are normally less than a third of that.

"It's almost costing as much to ship the product as the product is worth. It's getting rather serious," McKnight said.

"A lot of trucking companies are really hanging on my the skin of their teeth insofar as being able to keep the trucks rolling. A lot of them have basically parked them and said 'well, we'll just have to give up."'

Sometimes companies enter into hedging programs to lock in a supply of fuel at a steady price, but McKnight is warning his clients against that strategy right now.

"Hedging is tossing a coin and you're lucky to be right 50 per cent of the time," he said.

"The way the economy is going right now, I don't think if I was in the trucking industry I would want to be tossing coins on my future."

Jet fuel is by far the biggest expense for airlines.

Air Canada (TSX:AC.A) has said every $1 change in the price of a barrel of oil impacts its operating income by $26 million. The airline has bumped up fares on some routes to deal with the cost increase and announced Friday it would begin charging an extra $25 for passengers checking a second bag.

For Calgary-based discount airline WestJet Airlines Ltd.(TSX:WJA), a $1 change in the price of a barrel oil has about a $5-million impact on the bottom line.

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