By Jonathan Lynn
GENEVA (Reuters) - U.S. farm exporters will mainly gain access to markets in other rich countries under a likely World Trade Organisation (WTO) deal, new studies released on Tuesday by three major agricultural institutes said.
The studies, by the International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development, International Food and Agricultural Trade Policy Council and International Food Policy Research Institute, look at the impact of a WTO deal on the United States, the European Union and India.
"The U.S. study shows that the U.S. gains most market access in other developed countries," the three organizations said in a joint news release.
Tariffs faced by U.S. farm exporters in developed countries would fall to 9.1 percent from 18.7 percent, while actual farm tariffs in developing countries would fall only slightly, to 9.1 percent from 10 percent.
Applied tariffs on U.S. farm imports would fall to an average 3.5 percent from 8 percent, and further to 3.2 percent if proposals for special treatment of tropical products, mainly from Latin America, are adopted. These would affect mainly sugar, dairy produce and tobacco.
One of the major U.S. goals in the round is the elimination of export subsidies by other countries, particularly the European Union. In return the United States would give up its one remaining export subsidy program, for dairy produce, but this has not been active in recent years, it noted.
Washington will have to adjust support programs for cotton and sugar to comply with likely WTO cuts in farm subsidies.
But a WTO deal will require only modest changes to other farm support programs -- unless the optimistic price environment assumed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture does not materialize, it said.
The EU study concludes that WTO cuts in farm support will not constrain the EU's common agricultural policy (CAP) until the end of the proposed five-year implementation period, as Brussels has already started to reform the CAP.
This gives Brussels negotiating room to insist on deep cuts in support by other countries, especially the United States.
But the EU remains on the defensive when it comes to increasing market access by cutting tariffs, and some highly protected sectors such as sugar and meat products could see big cuts in duties, affecting producers, it said.
"At this point, it remains unclear whether this proposal is likely to be deemed palatable by European representatives," the study said, in an apparent reference to the row between the EU's top trade official Peter Mandelson and President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, Europe's biggest farm producer.
But EU farm exporters will see considerable gains in market access, with duties falling 17 percent, including a 33 percent fall in other developed countries, the study said.
India is a net food exporter but its farmers will see significant liberalization on only 30 percent of their exports, mainly to developed countries, the India study said.
"India's strong support of special and differential treatment opens few new market opportunities in developing countries," it said.
The proposed formula for cutting farm tariffs would see India's applied, or actual, tariffs fall to an average 54 percent from 59 percent.
But flexibilities available to developing countries could completely eliminate that reduction, so that a deal would not result in any market opening in Indian agriculture, apart from duty-free, quota-free access to least developed countries.
The studies are based on the negotiating text for agriculture in the Doha round issued by the WTO in May. A further revision to the text is due later this week.
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