Troubles Abound for Layton-less NDP
When NDP Leader Jack Layton announced, on July 25, that he was stepping aside for a leave of absence to battle a new round of non-prostate cancer, the media and ordinary Canadians alike were stunned and saddened. Irrespective of where they stand on the political spectrum, Canadians are all with Layton in the hopes that he battles this cruel disease with the same tenacity that has defined him as a person.
This bombshell, however, portends a very tenuous state of affairs for the NDP for a variety of reasons. Layton’s likeability and charisma were key factors that led to the NDP surge during the most recent election. As such, if Layton is unable to return to the political scene, his absence may lead to the undoing of this NDP surge. Though Layton was able to effectively mask the NDP’s vulnerabilities on the campaign trail, they are now on wide display. The NDP is vulnerable in two main areas: first, in its flirtation with Quebec separatists and its questionable choice of Nycole Turmel as interim leader; and second, in its ongoing battle over its direction – either becoming a moderate, centre-left alternative or remaining an obstinate, hard-left protest party.
Read more on the NDP's unanimous vote for Nycole Turmel here.
Nycole Turmel and the Quebec issue
The NDP owes its success in the last election to its surge in Quebec. The “orange tsunami” that unfolded was not anticipated by any pundits when the writ was dropped. The surge, however, sends a mixed signal. While Canadians committed to national unity were thrilled to see the separatist BQ obliterated, what was unsettling was the NDP’s tenuous embrace of federalism and national unity. While an approach that recognizes Quebec as a thriving nation in a strong, united Canada – as proclaimed in Parliament in 2006 – is to be welcomed, a tactic that rejects the Clarity Act and embraces the 50-per-cent-plus-one threshold for sovereignty – as espoused in the Sherbrooke Declaration – is deeply disturbing. While it is necessary for all federalist parties to reach out to soft nationalists in Quebec who want to contribute to the Canadian narrative, it is reckless for any pan-Canadian party to embrace a proposal that could very well endorse the breakup of Canada through deception and ambiguity.
The depth of loyalty of many Quebec NDP members of Parliament has also become an issue. It was recently revealed that Turmel was a member of the Bloc Québécois for five years, and only renounced her membership in January of this year. She insists that she never voted for the BQ, but, while her voting intentions are, indeed, private, the appearance of this is unsettling at best and maddening at worst.
Read a different perspective on Nycole Turmel's ties to the Bloc here.
It was disconcerting enough for Canadians when, in 1990, Lucien Bouchard defected from Brian Mulroney’s Progressive Conservatives to form the BQ, which became the official opposition at a time when Quebec was at the precipice of separation. The last thing Canadians want now is another leader of the opposition who might not be an overt separatist, but whose loyalty to Canada remains deeply questionable. At a time when national unity has improved, and support for sovereignty is far lower than it was at the time of the last referendum, Canadians do not need a “two solitudes” Parliament dominated by a Conservative Ontario-West alliance in government and a nationalist-Quebec NDP in opposition. Layton was able to soothe these tensions, but, with him on leave, the lid is torn off and they are on full display.
Centre-left alternative or far-left protest party?
The NDP has, for all outward appearances, been charting a more moderate, centre-left course. It has continued to take incessant and forthright jabs at the “big oil and gas companies,” but its most recent platform was lacking the more hard-left planks of the past. During the last election, the NDP was not calling for the nationalization of enterprise, and, though it opposed the Tories’ corporate tax cuts, it was nonetheless advocating corporate tax rates lower than those in the U.S. This is surprising because policy prescriptions for competitive corporate tax rates did not seem to be something the NDP could ever support. The seasoned team behind Layton insisted it was making a greater effort to appeal to the broader electorate, and, to the New Democrats’ credit, it seems this strategy was a winner for them.
The signals that have emerged since the last election are not as encouraging. For instance, it was unsettling when, within days of the successful operation, NDP MP Thomas Mulcair openly questioned (on CBC’s “Power & Politics,”) whether the Americans had captured and assassinated Osama bin Laden. The NDP convention in Vancouver earlier this summer demonstrated how fractious the rift in the party is between moderate social democrats and hard-left socialists. This rift was on full display when delegates on the far left refused to endorse the removal of the term “socialist” from the NDP’s constitution in favour of more moderate language. While a compromise was reached to study the matter further, this sends the signal that a portion of the party’s membership does not want to move to the centre, and would rather remain a protest party. Finally, Turmel herself was a member of Québec solidaire, which is both a separatist and hard-left political party.
Read The Mark Newsroom's take on the debate over Turmel's Bloc Québécois affiliation here.
Again, it seems that Layton’s absence will expose myriad rifts that might have been kept at bay with his ongoing presence. The NDP is in a difficult period, and I hope Layton makes a swift recovery. The NDP achieved unprecedented success in the last election, and now it is tasked as the Official Opposition, a serious responsibility that requires professionalism and diligence. While leadership is integral to the success of any political party, no leader should ever eclipse that entity over which he or she presides. For the last eight years, the NDP’s fortunes have been tied too neatly to Layton’s leadership, and, in a very cruel twist of fate, they could come undone.
Photo courtesy of Reuters.
