10 ridings to watch in B.C. on election night

What is a "swing riding," anyway?

There's no set definition for the phrase often heard during election season.

But generally, swing ridings in Canada have the following characteristics:

• They're electoral districts that posted close results in the previous election.

• Historically, voters in the riding have elected both left-wing, centre and right-wing candidates.

• Leaders of the main political parties have spent time in the riding during the campaign.

Based on that, there are a few places you can fairly call swing ridings in B.C. this provincial election.

At least 10 of them, in fact.

Here's a quick look at the ridings that will decide who forms government after all the votes are counted in the hours and days after polls close on Oct. 24, based on our analysis and conversations with party strategists.

We've mapped the 2017 results for each of them by polling station. Click on any voting area for the results from that district.

1 and 2. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows and Maple Ridge-Mission

Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows is the only riding centred in a municipality with fewer than 100,000 people that both B.C. NDP Leader John Horgan and B.C. Liberals Leader Andrew Wilkinson have visited several times this campaign — and for good reason.

Both Maple Ridge ridings have been decided by fewer than 2,000 votes in the past four elections, and have switched between the NDP and the dominant centre-right party of the day for more than 50 years, narrowly going to the NDP in 2017.

Maple Ridge's 2018 municipal election was dominated by talk of crime and homelessness, and the B.C. Liberals have made that a central part of their pitch.

The Liberals are hoping Maple Ridge city councillor Chelsea Meadus can take Maple Ridge-Mission from Bob D'Eith, and former councillor Cheryl Ashlie can take Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows from Lisa Beare.

3. Vancouver-False Creek

Vancouver-False Creek was only created three elections ago, but the Liberal margin of victory in those three wins has gone from 4,700 votes in 2009 to 3,300 votes in 2013, to just 415 in 2017.

That's why it's the only Vancouver riding both Horgan and Wilkinson have visited this campaign. The Liberals again hope their focus on crime and homelessness will resonate in Yaletown, while the NDP have promised an elementary school for Olympic Village after years of delay.

Brenda Bailey is the NDP candidate hoping to defeat Liberal incumbent and former Vancouver mayor Sam Sullivan, who has never lost a general election in his 27-year political career.

The Liberals were just one seat away from a majority in 2017. Their strategy is heavily focused on winning Maple Ridge and holding Vancouver-False Creek: if they can do that, it makes Horgan's path to a majority considerably tougher.

But, seeing as the NDP is up in the polls, there are several seats the party believes it can win even if that comes to pass.

4. Coquitlam-Burke Mountain

At the top of the NDP's list is Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, a riding in the north part of the city that includes both the apartment-heavy end of the Evergreen Line and the suburban neighbourhoods of Westwood Plateau and Burke Mountain.

It was the riding the NDP lost by the smallest margin of the 2017 election — just 87 votes — a riding where they've promised a new elementary and secondary school if re-elected, and where they've recruited a high-profile candidate in former NDP MP Fin Donnelly to run for them.

Put simply, Liberal incumbent Joan Isaacs will be in tough.

5. Richmond-Queensborough

After Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, the next closest riding in 2017 was Richmond-Queensborough, decided by 134 votes.

The district includes the eastern neighbourhoods of Richmond, the New West neighbourhood of Queensborough and the vast expanse of farmland in between — not to mention the Massey Tunnel and Queensborough Bridge.

It means there are plenty of local issues to tussle over, and that's another reason why both Wilkinson and Horgan have campaigned there. In a rematch of 2017, Liberal Jas Johal hopes to keep the seat against lawyer and NDP candidate Aman Singh.

6. Richmond-Steveston

The NDP hasn't won a seat in Richmond since 1972. But now, for the first time in decades, virtually all of the city is considered up in the air. That's due to the NDP's position in the polls, and the fact they lost three of the city's four seats by fewer than 2,000 votes last election.

Of the three after Richmond-Queensborough, this riding — featuring potentially the best neighbourhood in Metro Vancouver — is considered the best opportunity for an NDP pickup. Coun. Kelly Greene is the party's candidate, and will face Liberal Matt Pitcairn, the former Richmond Chamber of Commerce president.

7. Surrey-Cloverdale

Another area where the NDP have historically struggled but made gains in the past two elections is Surrey-Cloverdale, which has become considerably more urban as the Cloverdale and Clayton neighbourhoods have grown.

It's a battle of former city councillors here, as Liberal incumbent Marvin Hunt hopes to keep the seat against the NDP's Mike Starchuk.

Unlike previous elections, the NDP and Liberals have spent comparatively little time in Surrey this election, due to the fact most of the ridings were won by large margins in 2017.

8. Fraser-Nicola

Most of the campaigning by the Liberals and NDP has been in the Lower Mainland, home to 48 of B.C.'s 87 seats, and 14 of the 17 closest ridings in the last election.

But there are several ridings in the Interior that have received attention from both parties, including the one just outside the 604 area code: Fraser-Nicola, which was decided by fewer than 1,500 votes in each of the past four elections.

The NDP candidate is former Lower Nicola Indian Band chief Aaron Sumexheltza (just the second time in 33 years the party's nominee hasn't been Harry Lali), while Liberal Jackie Tegart is seeking re-election in one of the few ridings in B.C. where the largest community has fewer than 10,000 people.

9. Skeena

Last election, the NDP made gains in Metro Vancouver but lost ground in most of the Interior, including losing two seats in Skeena and Columbia River-Revelstoke.

It's in Skeena (centred around Kitimat and Terrace) where the party has its highest hope for a pickup, as Coast Mountain College board chair Nicole Halbauer hopes to defeat incumbent Ellis Ross, the B.C. Liberal candidate and former Haisla Nation chief councillor.

10. Oak Bay-Gordon Head

Most ridings in B.C. are fairly straightforward to project — look at how the parties did in the past few elections, see what the polls are looking like, and adjust for regional differences.

It's harder to do that in Oak Bay-Gordon Head, though. Former Green Party leader Andrew Weaver is stepping down, and there's no precedent in B.C. for how well the Greens will do after a sitting MLA is no longer running (their candidate this time is Nicole Duncan).

In the 2017 election, the Greens won in every polling station except the Uplands and tied with the Liberals in two others.

The Liberals held this seat from 1996 to 2013, but Vancouver Island has progressively become tougher territory for the party, whose candidate is Roxanne Helme. The NDP is running former Victoria MP Murray Rankin.

It's one of 87 mini-stories on election night — and arguably one of the most interesting.

Other ridings to look out for?

Outside of Maple Ridge, the seats the Liberals are most hopeful of taking from the NDP are Delta North, where RCMP officer Jet Sunner is facing incumbent Ravi Kahlon, and Courtenay-Comox, where the two parties were famously separated by just nine votes after the initial count on election night in 2017.

Vancouver-Fairview and Vancouver-Fraserview were also targets at the beginning of the campaign, but are likely out of reach given current polling numbers.

As for the Green Party, current polling makes it unlikely it will expand beyond the three seats it won last election — but in 2017, the party eclipsed 25 per cent of the vote in Nelson-Creston (where its candidate is Nicole Charlwood) and West Vancouver-Sea to Sky (where its candidate is Jeremy Valeriote).

They'll keep their fingers crossed for a breakthrough there, along with a number of seats on Vancouver Island.