2018 Golden Globes movie predictions: Our stone-cold, lead-pipe locks

Kevin Polowy
Senior Correspondent, Yahoo Entertainment
Photo: Courtesy of Everett Collection

Is Get Out a comedy? Did the audacity of Ridley Scott’s last-minute reshoots on All the Money in the World factor in more than merit? And did The Boss Baby really get nominated for an actual award IRL?

None of these questions will matter much once the champagne starts flowing and names start getting called Sunday at the 75th Golden Globe Awards, where 2017’s most acclaimed movies (and also The Boss Baby) will compete at the show otherwise known as the Oscars’ drunk cousin.

Which films and performances will the Hollywood Foreign Press Association bestow gold upon? In what’s shaping up to be a hard-to-predict awards season, see our best guesses below.

Best Motion Picture — Drama

Call Me by Your Name
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Like this year’s wide open Best Picture race at the Oscars, this one feels like a tossup. The only thing experts seem to agree on is that it’s not going to be Dunkirk or Call Me by Your Name (but that might be underestimating the hardcore critical support for the latter). Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water and Martin McDonagh’s Three Billboards both have their faithful fans, but in this time of great uncertainty, I’m going with the safest pick: Steven Spielberg’s topical and terrific journalism thriller The Post.

Our prediction: The Post
Don’t be surprised by: The Shape of Water or Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Dark horse: Call Me by Your Name

Best Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy

The Disaster Artist
Get Out
The Greatest Showman
I, Tonya
Lady Bird

This race is less difficult to narrow down but not any easier to predict a winner, between Greta Gerwig’s critically adored coming-of-age story Lady Bird and Jordan Peele’s social thriller (not a comedy!) sleeper hit Get Out. There’s some controversy, as you may have heard, over Get Out‘s placement in this category, so the HFPA may not want to face the type of scorn as two years ago for awarding the sci-fi actioner (still not a comedy!) The Martian this prize. With that in mind, slight edge to Lady Bird.

Our prediction: Lady Bird
Don’t be surprised by: Get Out

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture — Drama

Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Meryl Streep, The Post
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World

Sally Hawkins has been cleaning up the early critical awards for her touching and challenging performance as a mute janitor in The Shape of Water. There’s also some scintillating monster touching. She could win her first Golden Globe since her big-screen breakout in 2008’s Happy-Go-Lucky. But this category includes national treasure Frances McDormand (Three Billboards), who chews up the scenery and then spits it out all over the faces of the local Midwestern police force in one of the fiercest performances 2017 had to offer. Close call. (Staggering side note: Meryl Streep now has a record 30 GOLDEN GLOBE NOMINATIONS.)

Our prediction: Sally Hawkins
Don’t be surprised by: Frances McDormand

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture — Drama

Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks, The Post
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Timothée Chalamet was one of the greatest discoveries of 2017, and you’ve also got three acting stalwarts in Daniel Day-Lewis, Tom Hanks, and Denzel Washington. But it would be really surprising if this one doesn’t go to Gary Oldman for his astounding, career-best performance as England’s curmudgeonly savior Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour. Then look for Oldman’s status as Man of the Hour to keep going right up until Oscar night.

Our prediction: Gary Oldman
Dark horse: Timothée Chalamet

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy

Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes

Phew. These are getting easier. With Hawkins, McDormand, and 3,000-time nominee Streep competing elsewhere, the actress generally considered the frontrunner to win the Oscar should have no trouble picking up a Globe. That would be the now thrice-nominated Saoirse Ronan, whose eponymous teen in Lady Bird has audiences of all ages and genders relating to and falling in love with her. Just ask RuPaul.

Our prediction: Saoirse Ronan
Dark horse: Margot Robbie

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy

Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

James Franco looks like he’s having the time of his life cosplaying as The Room creator/Enigma of a Man Tommy Wiseau, and that’s a huge reason why The Disaster Artist is so entertaining. Then there’s Get Out breakout star Daniel Kaluuya, tortured (and sunken) for most of the film until he gets some very crowd-pleasing comeuppance. Again, upper hand has to go to the actual comedy.

Our prediction: James Franco
Dark horse: Daniel Kaluuya

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture 

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Hong Chau, Downsizing
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

It’s Roseanne alum Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird) versus West Wing alum Allison Janney (I, Tonya) in this battle of the tough-loving movie mamas. Metcalf has been the early favorite so far this season, stacking up at least a dozen wins from critics groups for her layered and ultimately heartbreaking performance as a hard-working Sacramento nurse. But don’t you f***ing dare count out Janney for her rapturous, hilarious, foul-mouthed turn as Tonya Harding’s own mommie dearest. I’ve gotta play favorites here.

Our prediction: Allison Janney
Don’t be surprised by: Laurie Metcalf

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

There was a feeling that the HFPA giving three nominations to All the Money in the World after seeing an unfinished cut of the film was more about social politics than merit. But Christopher Plummer, who replaced Kevin Spacey in the eleventh hour, is typically excellent. Still, he faces stiff competition here from Willem Dafoe (whose lovable hotel manager in The Florida Project might just mark a career-best) and Sam Rockwell (who pulls off one of the most surprising character arcs of the year in Three Billboards).

Our prediction: Willem Dafoe
Don’t be surprised by: Sam Rockwell
Dark horse: Christopher Plummer

Best Director — Motion Picture

Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World
Steven Spielberg, The Post

Like Best Picture, there’s a lot of uncertainty here. While no one seems to think Dunkirk stands a chance of winning the top prize, how could you possibly overlook the stunningly immersive work Christopher Nolan pulled off by dropping you in the thick of battle for 106 minutes? Del Toro’s creature feature The Shape of Water, meanwhile, is more beautiful to behold than anything he has done in the past, and he believes it to be his best work. And then there’s that 80-year-old wild card, Ridley Scott, who pulled off the unthinkable with All the Money.

Our prediction: Christopher Nolan
Don’t be surprised by: Guillermo del Toro
Dark horse: Ridley Scott

Best Screenplay — Motion Picture

Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Liz Hannah and Josh Singer, The Post
Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Aaron Sorkin, Molly’s Game

The Golden Globes love them some Aaron Sorkin. Molly’s Game marks his seventh nod — that’s five more than he has received from the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences despite the fact the Oscars have two separate screenplay-writing categories, meaning twice the number of nominees. But he’s probably the longest shot on this list. Again, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards are serious contenders (and why not toss The Post in there too?), but Greta Gerwig’s deeply personal — and deeply poignant — work on Lady Bird is sitting in the driver’s seat.

Our prediction: Lady Bird
Don’t be surprised by: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Dark horse: The Shape of Water

Best Motion Picture — Animated

The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Loving Vincent

Well, it’s not going to be The Boss Baby, I can tell you that. The Golden Globes have gone with Disney/Pixar films nine of the past 11 years (the only exceptions being How to Train Your Dragon 2 in 2015 and The Adventures of Tintin in 2013), so it’s hard to pick against the tear-jerking, crowd-pleasing Coco, which also happens to be one of Pixar’s best films yet.

Our prediction: Coco
Dark horse: The Breadwinner

Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language

A Fantastic Woman
First They Killed My Father
In the Fade
The Square

It’s a rare star-studded year in this category. You’ve got First They Killed My Father, the Cambodian genocide drama directed by Angelina Jolie. The Handmaid’s Tale nominee Elisabeth Moss brings a touch of English to Sweden’s highly stylized and outright bonkers satire The Square. Diane Kruger returns to her native Germany to give an explosive performance in the tough-to-watch terrorism drama In the Fade.  And transgender actress Daniela Vega becomes a star right before our eyes in the character study A Fantastic Woman.

Our prediction: The Square
Don’t be surprised by: A Fantastic Woman or First They Killed My Father
Dark horse: In the Fade

Best Original Score — Motion Picture

Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water
Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread
John Williams, The Post
Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk

Talk about legends of the game. Veteran composers John Williams, Hans Zimmer, Alexandre Desplat, and Carter Burwell have a combined 52 Golden Globe nominations (seven wins) and 69 Oscar noms (seven wins) among them. That’s why it will be impressive if/when first-time nominee and Radiohead star Johnny Greenwood can pull off an upset for his sumptuous work on Paul Thomas Anderson’s period fashion piece, Phantom Thread, their fourth collaboration together.

Our prediction: Phantom Thread
Don’t be surprised by: The Shape of Water
Dark horse: The Post

Best Original Song — Motion Picture

“Home,” Ferdinand
“Mighty River,” Mudbound
“Remember Me,” Coco
“The Star,” The Star
“This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman

The evocative ballad “Remember Me” sticks in your head for days — weeks, even — after jerking tears out of our faces in Coco. Hard to see it losing here… or on Oscar night.

Our prediction: “Remember Me”
Dark horse: “This Is Me”

Read more on Yahoo Entertainment: