2020 brings lots of days above 30 C but no records broken

So you think it's been hot this summer?

Well, it has, but it hasn't broken any records, says Environment Canada meteorologist Jill Maepea.

Not even for the number of heat warnings. In fact, you don't have to go back very far to find a summer with more warnings.

Maepea said 2018 saw 11 warnings for the entire year and by Aug. 10, 2018, the province was in the midst of its ninth.

We are now in the midst of the seventh warning of 2020.

Although August is expected to finish out with above-normal temperatures, Maepea said it's unlikely that 2020 will catch up to the hot pace of 2018.

"The chances of having more heat warnings towards the end of August — and especially September — diminishes quite greatly just due to the fact that our days get shorter, and the ability to have those huge, really humid air masses come through ... really drops off."

But if 2020 has one notable thing going for it, it was the early start to the heat warnings, said Maepea. There was a three-day heat warning issued in May, she said.

In fact, the first one was issued less than three weeks after a snowfall warning.

And just in case you've forgotten what last year was like, the province only had four heat warnings, said Maepea. And they were all in July.

Environment Canada uses a specific threshold to issue heat warnings, and those vary from region to region, explained Maepea.

In New Brunswick, for example, heat warnings are issued when there are two consecutive days forecast to be above 30 C, or when the humidex is predicted to be 36 or higher. And, the overnight temperature between those two days has to remain above 18 C.

The current heat warning was issued for Monday and Tuesday, with hotter temperatures expected on Tuesday, said Maepea. Temperatures are expected to peak at 33 C in northern New Brunswick.

With the humidex factored in, most of the province will feel like 40 on Tuesday, she said. The exception, as usual, is along the Fundy Coast. Saint John, for example, is only supposed to reach 20 C on Tuesday, with a humidex of 29.

The humidex value factors in the moisture in the air and represents what the temperature actually feels like.

Environment Canada explains it this way on its website: "High humidity makes people feel hotter than they would on a drier day. This is because the perspiration that cools us down cannot evaporate as quickly in moist, saturated air."

How Aug. 10 stacks up

Maepea said today's temperature falls short of the all-time hottest temperatures recorded for Aug. 10 in the province.

The hottest Aug. 10 in Moncton was 35.3 C, recorded in 2001; Fredericton was 33.4 C in 1995; Saint John was 31 C in 1995; and Miramichi was 36.7 C in 1876.

The hottest temperature ever recorded in New Brunswick was 39.4 C, and it was recorded in three different places — on Aug. 18, 1935, in Woodstock and Nepisiguit Falls; and on Aug. 19, 1935 in Rexton.

Lightning strikes down

There is one notable aspect to 2020's heat waves — they were accompanied by an unusually low number of lightning strikes, said Maepea.

"Usually the lightning is associated with warm weather," she said. "Often you get those thunderstorm outbreaks with hot and humid air masses, which we've seen. But for some reason this year, we just really aren't seeing that pattern of hot and humid weather."

In fact, New Brunswick saw less than half of the usual number of "cloud-to-ground" strikes, said Maepea.

In an average July, for example, the province would see more than 21,000 strikes, but 2020 saw less than 9,000, she said.

"I think a lot of the thunderstorm activity is remaining to our north, and often to the west. The Prairies have been quite active this year, whereas out east, it's been fairly quiet."

Based on this summer's weather patterns, Maepea said it's an unusually low number.

"So it's a little bit mysterious as to why those thunderstorms aren't really occurring with the hot and humid weather."

Days above 30 C

But, 2020 has had more days above 30 C than usual, said Maepea.

Moncton, for example, sees an average of 4.6 days where the temperature exceeds 30 C, and so far this year, it has reached that threshold 19 days.

Fredericton sees an average of nine days above 30 C, and has already hit that mark 16 times — and the airport has recorded 19 plus-30 days.

Miramichi usually gets 10 days and has already recorded 16, while Edmundston has tripled its annual average of five days.

The more temperate Saint John is pretty much on par this year with its one day above 30 C.

Energy consumption

While energy consumption often spikes in large urban centres during a heat wave, creating a strain on the system, that simply doesn't happen in New Brunswick, said NB Power spokesperson Marc Belliveau.

While people are using more energy for air conditioners, he said "the system doesn't even register that as a blip."

The main reason is our population. We just don't have the numbers to trigger any kind of spike that would burden the system.

A winter morning at -30 C is a different story, said Belliveau. That would require more electricity than NB Power would have available and so back-up measures would have to be put into motion, including firing up an oil plant or buying power from another utility — both very costly measures.

"But in the summer, it's so easy to meet the load," said Belliveau. "It's not problematic whatsoever."