2023 Emmys Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie


We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2023 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 15 to June 26, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 12. Afterward, final voting commences August 17 and ends the night of August 28. The 75th annual Primetime Emmy Awards will now take place Monday, January 15, live on Fox at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

See our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 75th Primetime Emmy Awards here.

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The State of the Race

Since “Monster: ​​The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” premiered last fall, star Evan Peters has done the best job of winning awards like Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie, with Daniel Radcliffe right behind, getting a Critics Choice Award for his performance in Roku Channel’s “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story.”

While those wins would lead one to believe that the Emmy race is between those two actors, one cannot underestimate the appeal of Steven Yeun’s performance in “Beef.” Given how the Netflix limited series premiered toward the end of the Emmys eligibility window, this is the first major award his performance on the show has been up for. Being an actor who got his start on TV with “The Walking Dead,” and then went off to launch a film career that led to a 2021 Oscar nomination, and has now come back with a prestige dramedy he produced and starred in, Yeun does have a good arc going into voting.

Plus, voters have been pretty progressive recently with who they’ve given the Emmy to for this particular category, with Riz Ahmed (“The Night Of”), Darren Criss (“The Assassination of Gianni Versace”), and Jharrel Jerome all making history with their award wins. Should Yeun win this year, he’d be the first Korean actor to receive the honor.

That all said, “Beef” is tied with “Monster: ​​The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” at 13 Emmy nominations, and seems like the more likely choice to win Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series, so it would make a lot of sense if Peters were to win, with voters trying to find ways to honor both Netflix series.

Power Rankings:

  1. Evan Peters, “Monster: ​​The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” (Netflix)

  2. Steven Yeun, “Beef” (Netflix)

  3. Daniel Radcliffe, “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” (Roku Channel)

  4. Taron Egerton, “Black Bird” (Apple TV+)

  5. Michael Shannon, “George and Tammy” (Showtime)

  6. Kumail Nanjiani, “Welcome to Chippendales” (Hulu)

Will Win: Evan Peters, “Monster: ​​The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”
Could Win: Steven Yeun, “Beef”
Should Win: Steven Yeun, “Beef”

More Limited Series and TV Movie Category Predictions:
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Outstanding TV Movie
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie

To see IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 75th Emmy Awards click here.

Last Year’s Winner: Michael Keaton, “Dopesick”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: If Nanjiani were to win (and we’re not counting FX-produced shows), Hulu would be the first network in 13 years to win this category two years in a row.
Notable Ineligible Series: Jon Hamm, “Fargo” (Season 5 was not eligible); Bryan Tyree Henry, “Class of ’09” (the season will not air in time to be eligible); Jesse Garcia, “Flamin’ Hot” (the film will not premiere in time to be eligible)

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