Sen. Kyrsten Sinema would overwhelming lose her next Democratic primary if it was held tomorrow.
A new poll also found that 70% of Arizona's Democratic primary voters disapprove of the first-term senator.
The Data for Progress poll suggests trouble if she doesn't improve her support before a 2024 primary.
Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona may be in political trouble, according to a new poll from Data for Progress, a progressive research firm that advocates for liberal policies.
The poll found that 70% of potential Arizona Democratic primary voters - made up of both registered Democrats and independents - disapprove of the work Sinema is doing as a senator. The first-term lawmaker has refused to back the $3.5 trillion social spending bill essential to President Joe Biden's agenda for reasons that remain unclear.
Furthermore, the poll found Sinema losing overwhelmingly to four potential Democratic challengers, including Reps. Ruben Gallego and Greg Stanton, Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego, and Tucson Mayor Regina Romero. Sinema, who won the Senate seat in 2019, will face a Democratic primary in 2024 if she runs for re-election.
In head-to-head matchups with each candidate, Sinema hovers around 25% support among voters:
62% support Ruben Gallego, 23% support Sinema
60% support Kate Gallego, 25% support Sinema
59% support Greg Stanton, 24% support Sinema
55% support Regina Romero, 26% support Sinema
Sinema, however, could face more than one primary opponent in three years. The poll found that if all five potential Democratic candidates ran, Gallego would lead the field with 23% of the vote, while Sinema would register at just 19%. Still, that could be her best shot at surviving a primary challenge.
Activists have actively begun recruiting challengers, including Gallego, to run against Sinema.
The poll also offers a clue as to why Democratic voters may be upset with Sinema: her opposition to Biden's Build Back Better bill, which is currently moving through Congress.
The poll found that Arizona Democratic primary voters would be much more likely to vote for a candidate who supports the bill's provisions, including closing tax loopholes, increasing taxes on the wealthy, and incentivizing clean energy use.
Sinema is notably opposed to prescription drug pricing reforms included in the bill, which 94% of respondents said would make them more likely to support another candidate in the 2024 primary.
The Data for Progress poll, conducted from October 8 to October 10, included 467 likely Democratic primary voters in Arizona and had a margin of error of 5 percentage points. Voters were reached via SMS text-to-web contact.
Sinema's office did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment.
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