Babies born to Muslims will outnumber Christian births by 2035, study finds

Babies born to Muslims will begin to outnumber Christian births by 2035, a new study has found.

The results, published by the Pew Research Centre on Wednesday, find that followers of the Muslim faith are projected to be the world's fastest-growing major religious group in the decades ahead. 

For years Christians were the largest religious group in the world in 2015, making up almost one third of the Earth's 7.3 billion people. Muslims were second with 1.8 billion faithful, according to the study. 

Whilst the world's Christian population also has continued to grow in recent years it has done so more modestly. And in the period between 2010 and 2015, births to Muslims made up an estimated 31 per cent of all babies born around the world – far exceeding the 24 per cent Muslim share of people of all ages in 2015.

This turnaround is in part driven by the fact that Christian populations are facing ageing communities. In Europe, deaths are expected to outnumber births in the years to come. In Germany alone, for example, there were an estimated 1.4 million more Christian deaths than births between 2010 and 2015.

The world’s Muslim population, on the other hand, is has a concentration of young adherents and high fertility rates, with a higher number of children born to adherents.  

By 2060, 27% of the global Muslim population is projected to be living in sub-Saharan Africa, up from 16% in 2015. The share of Muslims in the Middle East and North Africa is expected to hold steady at 20%.

Both Muslims and Christians are expected to capture a larger share of the global population by 2060. In contrast to this boom, the number people who do not identify with any religion are projected to decline in coming decades.  

Religiously unaffiliated people currently make up 16 per cent of the global population, only an estimated 10 per cent  of the world’s newborns between 2010 and 2015 were born to religiously unaffiliated mothers.  

Between 2055 and 2060, just 9% of all babies will be born to religiously unaffiliated women, the study said, while more than seven-in-ten will be born to either Muslims (36%) or Christians (35%).

Countries perceived Muslim population