If you played an NFL Wong teaser in Week 10, you hit everything. All six options listed in last week’s piece came through, restoring faith for teaser bettors. This week could draw some more difficulty with fewer intriguing options on the board.
As a reminder, here are some general guidelines to follow if you are wagering on NFL teasers to keep risk in check.
Stick to six-point teasers (you need to win more consistently to offset the higher price).
Keep it to a two-team teaser (the more pieces you add, the greater the risk).
Target lower-totaled games (the more points expected, the more variance involved).
Tease through the key numbers of three and seven (this approach is at the heart of all proven winning strategies).
Current Week 11 teaser-leg options
Bills -2 vs. Browns, 42
49ers -2 vs. Cardinals, 43.5 (Mexico City)
Vikings +7.5 vs Cowboy, 47.5
Raiders +8.5 at Broncos, 41
Teaser legs to avoid
It’s the ‘obvious’ ones for me, Buffalo and San Francisco. A massive snow storm is projected to hit Buffalo, which could possibly affect the contest against the Browns. The total opened at 46 before dropping to the current line of 42 as a result of the impending weather conditions. There’s even some chatter about possibly moving the location of the game in case the storm is too drastic. I don’t like to guess who plays better in tough conditions so it’s a pass for me.
San Francisco has stumbled on the road this season with three of its four losses coming when traveling. The Cardinals may or may not be without quarterback Kyler Murray. However, backup Colt McCoy is not one to be overlooked. Arizona is 3-1 with McCoy behind center, including a 31-17 win over the 49ers last season. The added element of this game played in Mexico City possibly creates more volatility.
Unconventional teaser legs to consider
Following the traditional Wong teaser uses options that cross through the key numbers of three and seven. This week, there are a few 3-point spread options that could be considered for a teaser leg. Getting a spread at +3 or better is long term more valuable playing as a solo wager instead of tying to a teaser because of the volatility involved with correctly selecting two games for a winner. However, since there are a few 3-point spreads, these could be considered just for the sake of having additional options available, while taking note of the added risk involved. These unconventional options are:
Bears +9 at Falcons, 49.5
Jets +9 at Patriots, 38.5
Rams +9 at Saints, 39
Lions +9 at Giants, 45
Texans +9 vs. Commanders, 40.5
Week 11 NFL teaser to bet: Jets +9 and Vikings +7.5
Both New York and New England have strong defenses, 7th and 13th in total defense respectively. The offense will be key; which team is less likely to create mistakes via turnovers? Typically, I am all about fading Jets quarterback Zach Wilson and yes, there’s the narrative that Patriots head coach Bill Belichick feasts on young quarterbacks. However, the Jets defense could possibly be better than the Patriots and at the moment, Mac Jones could possibly be the less productive quarterback between the two.
The Jets are 4-0 ATS on the road this season. The Jets defense is allowing a league low of 27% passing plays to be converted to a first down or touchdown. In the last five games, the Jets defense has held opponents to 17 points or less in four, including a 20-17 win over the Bills. Maybe we see improvements from Wilson and by improvements I mean no turnovers. Against one of the better defenses he's faced in the Bills, Wilson threw zero interceptions while completing a season-best 72% of his passes. Jones, on the other hand, has been sacked 10 times in his last two games after being benched for backup Bailey Zappe three games ago. Currently, the Jets offer more stability.
The Vikings are finding ways to win games. Coming off back-to-back road games, Minnesota returns home to face one of the most penalized teams in the league. The Cowboys are 28th in penalties, averaging eight penalties per game on the road and six at home. That lack of focus could come into play against a Vikings offense that is second-best in the NFL for fourth quarter points scored. The higher point total adds volatility but Minnesota has offensive playmakers that could really test the Dallas defense with WR Justin Jefferson and RB Dalvin Cook.