Words I’ve been waiting so long to say — the NFL is back! We kick off a new betting season with the Buffalo Bills (-2.5) traveling to Los Angeles to face the Super Bowl champion Rams. We’ve got totals, spreads, and of course, player props to consider. There are two props that have caught my eye.
The Bills had the No. 1 defense last season. Who did they face? Oh yeah ... Jacoby Brissett, Taylor Heinicke, Davis Mills, Mike White, Carson Wentz, Trevor Siemian, Cam Newton and rookie QBs in Mac Jones, Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson. This defense ranked third in pressure rate and sixth in pass rush win rate, but it faced the second-easiest schedule of quarterbacks.
But now you get a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback in Stafford, who threw for the third-most yards and second-most passing touchdowns last season. Just three times did the Bills defense face better quarterbacks in Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady, and it gave up seven passing scores combined to them.
An impressive 41 of the 51 total offensive touchdowns scored by the Rams came from Stafford passing scores. In 21 games played, Stafford threw three touchdown passes or more in 10, including against the Bengals, 49ers, Cardinals, Bucs and Bears.
Let’s leave the analysis at home. This is a fan bet because don’t we all just want to see A-Rob finally do big things with a capable quarterback? Why am I a Jags fan? Because I was a huge Robinson fan and since he went to the Jags, by default, so did I.
The Rams offense no longer has Robert Woods or Odell Beckham, which leaves nine touchdown passes to replace from its receiver production. Yes, Offensive Player of the Year Cooper Kupp is all the rage but maybe head coach Sean McVay will do Robinson a solid and officially welcome him to the team with a touchdown play.
In those three games and seven touchdown scores where the Bills faced either Mahomes or Brady, six were to a different receiver, including some ‘further down the roster’ players like Byron Pringle and Breshad Perriman.