New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio says Gov. Andrew Cuomo has engaged in a pattern up coverups and lies. (March 12)
MOSCOW/PRAGUE (Reuters) -Moscow expelled 20 Czech diplomats on Sunday in a confrontation over Czech allegations that two Russian spies accused of a nerve agent poisoning in Britain in 2018 were behind an earlier explosion at a Czech ammunition depot that killed two people. Prague had on Saturday ordered out 18 Russian diplomats, prompting Russia to vow on Sunday to "force the authors of this provocation to fully understand their responsibility for destroying the foundation of normal ties between our countries". Moscow gave the Czech diplomats just a day to leave, while Prague had given the Russians 72 hours.
WASHINGTON — Less than three months after former President Donald Trump left the White House, the race to succeed him is already beginning. Trump's former secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, has launched an aggressive schedule visiting states that will play a pivotal role in the 2024 Republican primaries and he has signed a contract with Fox News Channel. Mike Pence, Trump's former vice-president, has started a political advocacy group, finalized a book deal and later this month will give his first speech since leaving office in South Carolina. And Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been courting donors, including in Trump's backyard, with a prominent speaking slot before the former president at a GOP fundraising retreat dinner this month at Mar-a-Lago, the Florida resort where Trump now lives. Trump ended his presidency with such a firm grip on Republican voters that party leaders fretted he would freeze the field of potential 2024 candidates, delaying preparations as he teased another run. Instead, many Republicans with national ambitions are openly laying the groundwork for campaigns as Trump continues to mull his own plans. They’re raising money, making hires and working to bolster their name recognition. The moves reflect both the fervour in the party to reclaim the White House and the reality that mounting a modern presidential campaign is a yearslong endeavour. “You build the arc before it rains,” said Michael Steel, a Republican strategist who worked for Jeb Bush’s presidential 2016 campaign, among others. “They’re going to do the things they need to do if he decides not to run.” Trump, at least for now, is giving them plenty of leeway, convinced they pose little threat to his own ambitions. “It’s a free country. Folks can do what they want," Trump adviser Jason Miller said in response to the moves. “But,” he added, “if Present Trump does decide to run in 2024, the nomination will be his if you’re paying any attention to public polling of Republican voters." Polling does indeed show that Trump remains a commanding figure among GOP voters, despite his loss in November to Democrat Joe Biden. Republican leaders, including those who may hope to someday succeed him, have been careful to tend to his ego and make clear they have no plans to challenge his standing. Florida Sen. Rick Scott, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, last weekend awarded Trump a new “Champion for Freedom Award," which the group publicized — complete with a photo of a smiling, golf-attired Trump holding a small, gleaming cup — even after the former president went after Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky in a profanity-laden speech. A day later, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who many consider a top-tier 2024 candidate, told The Associated Press that she will sit out the race if Trump runs again. “I would not run if President Trump ran, and I would talk to him about it," she said in Orangeburg, South Carolina. “That’s something that we’ll have a conversation about at some point, if that decision is something that has to be made.” The deference is, in part, an acknowledgement of Trump's continued power. Even out of office and without his Twitter megaphone, Trump remains deeply popular with the GOP base and is bolstered by an $85 million war chest that can be shared with endorsed candidates, spent on advertising and used to fund travel and pay for polling and consultants. Trump is making plans to soon increase his visibility, with aides discussing options to hold rallies as soon as late spring or summer. “There’s a pretty strong demand out there to get President Trump on the road,” Miller said. Many Republicans acknowledge Trump would leap to the front of the pack if he chooses to mount a bid to become the only president other than Grover Cleveland to serve two nonconsecutive terms. Still, there is deep skepticism in many corners of the party that Trump will run again. While people close to him insist he is serious, many see Trump’s continued flirtations as a means to maintain relevance as he has settled into a comfortable post-White House life. At Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, he's courted by candidates and met by rounds of applause and standing ovations whenever he enters the dining room. In the meantime, other could-be-candidates are making moves, even as many of their aides insist their focus is squarely on next year's congressional elections and helping Republicans win back control of the House and Senate. Jeff Kaufmann, the chair of the Iowa Republican party, said the activity in his state has begun even earlier this year than in the past two election cycles, with every candidate on his potential 2024 list having already visited or thinking of visiting the first state on the GOP nominating calendar. “I know of no one — honestly no one — that is hesitating to come out," he said. "Now some are a little more subtle than others, but that may not necessarily be tied to Donald Trump. That may be just tied into their campaign style and not wanting to get too far ahead of their skis until they see if they have any traction whatsoever.” Pompeo, arguably the most aggressive to date, is among those who has already spent time in Iowa, as well as New Hampshire, and this week past he addressed Rabbi Shmuley Boteach’s World Values Network in New York, where he was introduced by video by Republican megadonor Miriam Adelson. And on Saturday, he headlined the Palm Beach County Republican Party’s annual Lincoln Day dinner at Mar-a-Lago along with Scott and DeSantis. DeSantis, who is up for reelection next year, recently hired a top Republican strategist who served as executive director of the Republican Governors Association. DeSantis also has been using the race build a deep fundraising network that could support him if he chooses to run nationally. The party, which for a time appeared to be paralyzed by division, has grown more united in its opposition to Biden, even as Trump continues to spar with McConnell and works to defeat incumbents who voted for his impeachment. Republicans in Congress have found common cause railing against Biden’s border policies, voting against his COVID-19 relief bill and pushing for new restrictions on voting, while railing against corporate interference in the voting rights debate. “I think you would find broad agreement in our party that we need to be having the debate about policy," said Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyoming, the No. 3 House Republican, who continues to face enormous backlash after voting for Trump's impeachment. “We need to be talking about policy," she said while speaking to Georgetown University’s Institute of Politics and Public Service last week. Regardless of Trump's ultimate decision, his critics and acolytes alike say they see the future of the party as dependent on maintaining their appeal Trump voters, while at the same time winning back the suburban voters who abandoned them last fall. “I think everyone’s trying to find that magic combination of ‘Trump-plus,’ of continuing to appeal to the new voters that President Trump brought to the Republican coalition while also bringing back back some of the college-educated suburban folks that were repelled by his antics,” said Steel. ___ Associated Press writer Meg Kinnard in Orangeburg, South Carolina, contributed to this report. Jill Colvin, The Associated Press
China will expand digital yuan experiments to more cities, but there is no specific timetable for its official rollout, central bank vice governor Li Bo told an annual gathering on Sunday of top Chinese and foreign policymakers, executives and academics. China is one of the frontrunners in the global race to launch central bank digital currencies to modernise financial systems, ward off the threat from cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and speed up domestic and international payments. Li said testing had shown that the issuance and distribution mechanism of the digital yuan, or e-CNY, are compatible with the existing financial system, and help minimize the impact on the banking sector.
The woman who shot a video of a violent arrest by a private security guard at a Saskatoon FreschCo. earlier this week says she was frozen in fear as she watched the incident unfold before her. Now, after taking some time to reflect and steady herself, she says she's glad she recorded the video, but wishes she had stepped in. Jade Acikahte watched the entire arrest unfold, saying the Indigenous woman complied with the security guard fully before she was arrested. Acikahte says the security guard stopped the woman as she was leaving the store on 33rd Street West in the city's Mayfair Neighbourhood, and said he suspected her of theft. She says that when asked, the woman followed instructions from the man fully, emptying the contents of her purse as requested. However, when that didn't satisfy the guard, the man told the woman to follow him back to the store, at which time she said she didn't want to. "As she was putting her stuff back in her purse, she said 'No, I don't want to go with you. I'm not going with you,'" Acikahte said. The guard was blocking the woman's path, according to Acikahte, when the woman tried to walk away. Acikahte said the security guard grabbed the woman by her wrist and tried to force her into handcuffs. When she fought back, the man threw her to the ground. "With her hands still behind her back, so she wasn't able to brace for that fall," she said, and at that point, that's when she took out her phone and started to record. The incident has spurred calls for the security guard in the video to be fired and has already resulted in the termination of the contract between the FreshCo. store and the security firm that employs him. The woman, a 30-year-old, has been charged with theft under $5,000 and assault as a result of the incident. Calls for guard to be fired, charged The security guard has not been charged, but many — including Indigenous leaders with the Federation of Sovereign Indigenous Nations and the Saskatoon Tribal Council — want that to change. They also want all charges against the woman dropped. As for Acikahte, she says she had never seen anything like the arrest before, noting she agrees the guard should be fired and charged. "I felt really confused and scared for her," she said. "All I know is that I had to record." A photo of Jade Acikahte, an Indigenous woman in Saskatoon who recorded a violent arrest in a Saskatoon parking lot by a private security guard on April 14,2021. (Supplied by Jade Acikahte ) The company that employs the guard, Emergency Security Management Solutions, has told CBC News previously that every company has its policies and procedures around their employees and says they will be followed. Acikahte says the recording has been shared with police, as she does not feel the guard's behaviour was appropriate. It's also circulated widely online, with the original post being shared almost 2,000 times. WATCH | Federation of Sovereign Indigenous Nations calls for security guard to be fired following violent arrest at Saskatoon store: Acikahte, who saw photos of the arrests aftermath, says the woman in the video suffered numerous injuries as a result. "It was literally her entire body," she said. Acikahte, who is also Indigenous, says the fact the woman was charged as a result of the incident is "absolutely outrageous." "Just witnessing it from beginning to end, the force he used at the very beginning was just not necessary," she said. "I feel like she acted out of self-defence. Completely." However, Acikahte says while the video was shocking, it wasn't surprising, as it's a sign of a larger problem. "This is normal life for Indigenous people. I really hope that this situation can be an example and it's rectified in a positive way," she said. "It's upsetting. It's really, really upsetting to watch this unfold." Mayor addresses racism, profiling Saskatoon's Mayor Charlie Clark has also publicly stated the video has left him feeling angry, and this type of violence "needs to stop. "We can't ignore as a community that not everyone would have been treated this way. Our city has been coming to terms with the reality of our history and ongoing impacts of violence against women, and violence against Indigenous women," said Clark in the statement. "We have also been coming face to face with the reality that systemic racism, and profiling of people in stores and institutions in our community, carries on in large and small ways," he said. "The video of this arrest highlighted this. I hear too often from people who are Indigenous, Black, and people of colour that they regularly face discrimination, profiling and violence." In the statement, Clark says this type of violence has a real impact on a person's life and those who do not experience need to "listen and hear directly from people who do. "We have work to do to address the training and accountability of security guards, the racial profiling of people in stores and institutions, to address the hard truths of the impacts of a colonial relationship, and to build a way forward where we see each other as relatives and where everyone has opportunity here." Clark says he's committed to the work necessary to bring an end to this type of injustice and has already had communication with Saskatoon Tribal Chief Mark Arcand on steps forward. "I will keep working with leaders throughout the community towards these goals," he said in the statement. "We can only be successful by doing it together as a community." The woman has been offered support by both the FSIN and the STC, and Acikahte says she too will do all she can to help. She's spoken to the woman about why she didn't get involved, as she was afraid of charges, and for her safety and said the conversation was important. "I apologized profusely for not stepping in for not being more help," she said. "She was not upset with me. She was not angry with any of us bystanders, she was glad it was recorded." On Friday morning, the Saskatoon Police Service confirmed its investigation into the matter is ongoing, but did not have any updates. "As with any call for service, we respond with the information we have at the time," the statement said. "I can add that if we need to seek an opinion from the Crown following the investigation, we will."
The Ontario government and the Greater Toronto Area's largest public health units say they don't yet know how many teachers and education workers have been vaccinated against COVID-19 — as some special education workers and students head back to class this week. Many of those workers were made eligible for vaccinations last week when the province announced a plan to inoculate education staff in hot-spot neighbourhoods during April break. While the return of in-person classes for elementary and secondary schools has since been put on hold indefinitely across Ontario, some classes for students with special education needs are set to resume on Monday. It appears that few of those teachers will have been vaccinated by the time their classrooms reopen. "Not many have been vaccinated already, and certainly none have been vaccinated with the two-week incubation period that's needed," said Gail Bannister-Clarke, president of the Peel Elementary Teachers Local and a longtime Brampton elementary teacher. The possibility of delayed vaccinations for teachers, coupled with the pandemic's surging third wave in Ontario, is said to be threatening the return of in-person learning for the remainder of the school year. "There will be virtually no time left in the school year before those vaccines have had a chance to take effect," said Harvey Bischof, president of the Ontario Secondary School Teachers Federation (OSSTF). In Peel Region alone, Bannister-Clarke said, Monday will mark the return of 116 teachers and dozens of special education workers for in-person classes. Gail Bannister-Clarke, president of the Peel Elementary Teachers Local, said teachers will not feel comfortable returning to class before being vaccinated.(Zoom) She said some teachers and education workers who tried to book appointments last week will not actually receive their shots until mid-May. "We're quite confused as to why we're opening classrooms at this time," Bannister-Clarke said. Ontario promised vaccine access, 'full stop' Ontario said its plan to make teachers and special education workers a priority for immunization in hot-spot postal codes would help protect workers facing the greatest risk of infection. "I just want to assure every worker in the province in our schools, driving our buses and helping to protect our kids: you are going to get access to the vaccine, full stop," Education Minister Stephen Lecce said after announcing the plan, which came days before Ontario decided to close schools to in-person learning following April break. But local public health units, who are tasked with administering vaccinations, say they did not receive any additional vaccine supply or guidance when teachers and education staff were made eligible. Toronto's Medical Officer of Health Dr. Eileen de Villa estimated during a Board of Health meeting last week that "roughly 40,000" people qualified for vaccination under the expanded plan, but said Toronto did not receive any additional vaccines to serve those workers. "It wasn't really a plan, it was sort of a half-baked wish," said Bischof, who said teachers have reported difficulty getting vaccine appointments across Ontario. The province's Ministry of Health did not respond to a CBC News request for information on the status of vaccinations among teachers and education workers. Vaccines may not even be enough Brenda Coleman, a clinical scientist at Sinai Health System and an assistant professor at the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto, said vaccination rates are one of several key factors that will determine if and when schools are safe to reopen. Coleman is studying the threat of COVID-19 to teachers in schools, which she considers to be a "very high-risk situation." While Coleman said vaccines represent an important safeguard for teachers, she said the current trajectory of the pandemic could preclude schools from reopening even if teachers are vaccinated. "The case rate is so high right now that putting children and education workers back into school just doesn't make any sense at this point," Coleman said.
NEW DELHI (Reuters) -India's capital New Delhi recorded 25,500 coronavirus cases in a 24-hour period, with about one in three people tested returning a positive result, its chief minister said, urging the federal government to provide more hospital beds to tackle the crisis. Less than 100 critical care beds were available in the city of more than 20 million people, Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal said on Sunday, as social media was flooded with people complaining about lack of beds, oxygen cylinders and drugs. In a separate statement, the city government said it had informed Prime Minister Narendra Modi's federal administration about "the dire need of beds and oxygen" and beds were now being set up in schools.
Alma Wahlberg, the mother of entertainers Mark and Donnie Wahlberg and a regular on their reality series “Wahlburgers,” has died, her sons said on social media Sunday. She was 78. “My angel. Rest in peace,” Mark Wahlberg tweeted. Donnie Wahlberg posted a longer tribute to his mother on his Instagram account. “It’s time to rest peacefully, mom,” Donnie Wahlberg wrote. “I love you, miss you, thank you and will celebrate you, today and always.” No information was given about the cause, date or location of her death. Donnie Wahlberg often posted about his mother on his accounts and in July updated his fans on her health, writing that she “didn’t remember much and was often confused but somehow she was still Alma.” The Boston-born mother of nine became a household name thanks to her appearances on the A&E series “Wahlburgers,” about the family’s burgeoning burger chain. “She made no apologies for who she was, but never put herself above anyone else. She kicked our butts if we messed up, kicked anyone else’s butts if they messed with us. Taught us right, made us pay the price when we were wrong,” Donnie Wahlberg wrote Sunday. “She was the epitome of the word grace.” He also included a video of them dancing at his wedding to one of her favourite songs, “If I Could” by Regina Belle. He wrote that she danced to that song at each of her children’s weddings, but at his own, he surprised her by having Belle there to perform it live. On the “Today” show in 2018, Alma Wahlberg opened up about her parenting and how hard it was early on. “I invented the craziest meals,” she said. English muffin pizzas were among her creations to feed her hungry lot. More than a few of her children went on to great successes and fame. Her son Paul Wahlberg, who is the chef behind the namesake burger chain, also named the Alma Nove restaurant in Hingham, Massachusetts, after her. “People know me as being the mother of famous children, and although this fact has brought many gifts into my life and has afforded me opportunities that may never have been possible otherwise, there is a whole lot more to my story than most people know,” Alma Wahlberg said in an interview with Boston’s WCVB-TV in 2018. “I’ve lived with alcoholism and abuse; struggled with poverty and experienced great wealth; lost so many that I’ve loved; struggle to raise nine children, and I love them more than anything else; watch them suffer, learn and come out on the other side; lost myself; found myself, again and again; and kept moving forward, no matter what.” Alma Wahlberg is survived by eight children. Her daughter Debbie died in 2003. Lindsey Bahr, The Associated Press
The Windsor-Essex County Health Unit (WECHU) reported 66 new COVID-19 cases and no new deaths on Sunday. Since the pandemic began, there have been 14,803 COVID-19 cases recorded in Windsor-Essex and 409 deaths, according to WECHU. There are 472 known active cases in the region. Among Sunday's cases, 28 are close contacts of confirmed cases, 12 are community-acquired and 26 are still being investigated. There are 20 people in hospital in the region, with four in the intensive care unit. According to WECHU, 118,676 residents have received at least one dose of a vaccine — 105,988 people have received their first dose of the vaccine and 12,688 have received both doses. The public health authorities identified 458 preliminary or confirmed variant of concern cases. There are seven ongoing outbreaks. They include one school outbreak in St. John Vianney Catholic School in Windsor. Six workplaces have active outbreaks, including: One in Leamington's agriculture sector. Three in Windsor's health care & social assistance sector. One in LaSalle's manufacturing sector. One in Windsor's manufacturing sector.
Gordie Howe, Saskatchewan's most famous hockey icon, always said records were meant to be broken, according to his son, Murray Howe. And if Gordie were alive today, Murray said, he'd be excited to see another Saskatchewan native, Patrick Marleau, break his longtime record for most NHL games played — expected to happen Monday night in Las Vegas, barring anything unforeseen. "I think he'd be very thrilled and the first out on the ice to applaud Patrick on this really incredible milestone," Murray said. Gordie Howe, who had the nickname Mr. Hockey, set the record of 1,767 NHL games played before he retired in 1980 at age 52. Howe died in 2016 when he was 88. Marleau, 41, tied the record on Saturday night in Minnesota. Murray said he's also happy to see his dad's record will be broken by Marleau, someone lauded for the same dedication, passion and humility as Gordie Howe, who "never put himself up on a pedestal." "[Marleau] is a class act," he said. "Just in the same way that Gretzky broke Dad's scoring records, it was great to see it accomplished by someone who was humble and dedicated to the game and grateful for the things that he had." As Monday approaches, Marleau's family is also cheering him on, from the Saskatchewan farm where he first fell in love with the game. WATCH | Brush up on the career of Patrick Marleau in 90 seconds: Shooting pucks by the barn Marleau grew up on his parent's farm near Aneroid, Sask., 250 kilometres southwest of Regina. His mother, Jeanette, a retired teacher, remembers how her two sons, Richard and Patrick, would play mini-stick hockey in the kitchen on her linoleum floor. "If I would wax [the floor], they would use their socks and they would polish it at the same time. They'd be playing hockey and [polishing]," she said. Richard took masking tape and spelled out "NHL" on the back of their jerseys. Denis Marleau and his two sons, Richard and Patrick, right, at their home near Aneroid, Sask. Now in his 23rd NHL season, Patrick Marleau said he still loves the game.(Submitted by Teresa Marleau) "There were a lot of battles on the kitchen floor. It seemed like we'd just get wound up on a Saturday night when Hockey Night in Canada would start playing … and then Mom would say 'Oh no, it's time for bed' just when things got really good," he said, with a chuckle. But Marleau's singular focus on honing his skills began to set him apart from other young players. His father, Denis, who still farms at age 74, remembers how Patrick would haul an ice cream container full of pucks out to the barn and practice his shot off a sheet of plywood. "You'd always knew where he was on the farm. You could hear this bang, bang — the pucks hitting the boards," said Denis. "We didn't have to tell him to do anything about hockey. He just loved it." At Christmas one year, Marleau's parents gave him an instructional video by Mario Lemieux, his favourite player, on VHS and he played it over and over. "I'm sure he wore that tape out. He watched it for hours," said Denis. Marleau grew up playing hockey in small rinks around Aneroid, Saskatchewan, 250 kilometres southwest of Regina.(Submitted by Teresa Marleau) Hard work and a bit of luck Marleau was selected by San Jose in the 1997 NHL Draft. The team's veteran goaltender Kelly Hrudey said he saw something special in the young rookie and so he, along with his wife Donna and three daughters, invited Marleau to live in their guesthouse. Hrudey said he could tell that Marleau was raised by his parents to be kind, and he hasn't changed today. "Very, very humble. For all that he's accomplished, and things he's done in his career and all the money he's made, to me he hasn't changed," said Hrudey. WATCH | Why Kelly Hrudey invited Patrick Marleau to come stay: The NHL analyst for Sportsnet credits Marleau's long career to his unique combination of skill, smarts, and passion, as well as Marleau's intense off-ice training and a bit of luck that have helped him escape injury. "He's had a body that just refuses to break down and that's what's very, very rare," said Hrudey. On Thursday, Marleau spoke to reporters in a virtual press conference. "I just love being out there and playing. Obviously every kid's dream is to hoist that Stanley Cup, so I've been chasing it all this time," said Marleau. He has yet to win a NHL championship. Marleau poses with his parents, Jeanette and Denis, after winning a gold medal at the 2010 Vancouver Olympic Games. (Submitted by Teresa Marleau) Marleau, who didn't mention retirement, said he hopes he'll be remembered as a player who loved the game, his team, and winning. "Ya know, I gave it my all," he said. Murray Howe, a physician who now lives in Toledo, Ohio, said his dad Gordie had the same attitude and was never driven or distracted by his statistics or records. "It is more about doing what he loves and feeling fortunate that he could do it as long as he could and do it at the level that he did," he said. "When Dad finally hung up the blades, he knew he left everything out on the ice and I think he's equally proud of anyone who does the same thing out on the ice, including Gretzky and Patrick [Marleau]." San Jose Sharks centre Marleau, left, is congratulated by teammates after scoring a goal against the Anaheim Ducks during the second period of an NHL hockey game on April 6 in San Jose, Calif.(Tony Avelar/The Associated Press)
After a year that saw federal spending reach levels not seen since the Second World War, the Liberal government will release a long-awaited budget Monday that will offer a roadmap to a post-pandemic economic recovery. Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland's first budget as finance minister will attempt to balance measures meant to reduce the severity of COVID-19's third wave with efforts to set the stage for an economic rebound. The budget will account for record emergency spending driven by measures to fight the pandemic and blunt its economic impact. Freeland is also expected to provide details of a plan to spend up to $100 billion in stimulus and jump-start progress on a number of Liberal priorities ahead of a possible election this year. "We will have more to tell you next Monday about the plan we are implementing to keep Canadians safe, to create jobs for the middle class and to rebuild a clean, resilient economy," Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in French at a press conference on Friday. "All of the measures in Budget 2021 are focused on helping you through this crisis and rebuilding a stronger Canada for everyone." Here are five items to look out for when Freeland opens the government's books. Child care The budget is expected to take major steps toward funding a national early learning and child care system — a pledge Liberal politicians have made for decades. At the party's policy convention two weeks ago, Freeland said the time is ripe to fulfil a old promise. "I really believe COVID has created a window of political opportunity and maybe an epiphany on the importance of early learning and child care," Freeland said. Children are pictured with their daycare workers at Bee Haven Childcare Centre in North Vancouver, British Columbia on Friday Oct. 9, 2020.(Ben Nelms/CBC) The Liberals say they believe a national child care system will boost economic growth and productivity by creating well-paid jobs and freeing up more women to work. Freeland has pointed to Quebec's system — where parents pay a flat rate of $10 a day per child — as a potential model. Morna Ballantyne, executive director of the advocacy group Child Care Now, said the budget will have to include a significant financial commitment to show the government is serious about funding more spaces and bringing costs down for parents. "We want to see a signal that the federal government is ready and willing to work together with provinces and territories to make sure that a system can actually be built, because it is going to require a collaborative effort," said Ballantyne. Fiscal anchor The fall economic statement released in November projected the deficit would reach $381.6 billion by the end of March 2021. It's likely that number is even higher now, given that several benefits programs — the wage subsidy, the rent subsidy and the recovery, sickness and caregiving benefits — have been extended into the late spring as the country confronts a third wave of the pandemic. Freeland also announced the government's intention to introduce a short-term stimulus package — valued at $70 billion to $100 billion over roughly three years — that would launch after vaccines are distributed and life begins to return to normal. Goldy Hyder, president and CEO of the Business Council of Canada, says he wants to see the government adopt a fiscal anchor in the 2021 budget that would set a limit on future spending.(The Associated Press) Sources have told CBC News the budget is expected to project a downward trajectory for the deficit but is not expected to propose a timeline for eliminating it. Economists and business groups will be looking for a sign that the Liberals have a plan in place to keep spending in check so that it doesn't overheat the economy or lead to unsustainable debt payments if interest rates rise. "The federal government can boost business confidence and encourage higher levels of private sector investment by committing to a responsible and prudent post-pandemic fiscal plan that avoids unnecessary new spending and seeks to gradually ease the burden of public debt," Goldy Hyder, president and CEO of the Business Council of Canada, wrote in a March 1 letter to Freeland. Hyder is encouraging the government to adopt a clear fiscal anchor — a benchmark to serve as a theoretical cap on spending and deficits. The government has said the spending taps will remain open until several "fiscal guardrails" tied to the labour market are met. Those include improvements in employment, unemployment and total hours worked, though the Liberals have not revealed specific targets for each. Green economy The Liberals' slogan for their post-pandemic agenda — "build back better" — refers in part to their desire to speed up the transition to a green, low-carbon economy. Expect a significant portion of the planned stimulus spending to go toward investments in clean energy technology, jobs and infrastructure. That means money for building charging stations for electric vehicles, retrofitting old-stock commercial buildings and homes and helping natural resource industries transition to cleaner energy. A vehicle is seen charging up in Montreal earlier this year.(Ivanoh Demers/Radio-Canada) Through investments in greening homes and buildings, the government hopes to create a domestic retrofit industry and supply chain for products such as energy-efficient windows and doors. Shortly after budget day, the government is expected to release more ambitious greenhouse gas reduction targets. The current target is 30 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. Monday's budget likely will sketch out how the Liberals plan to meet that more ambitious target. Inequality and racial justice It's become a common refrain — that the COVID-19 pandemic has exposed pre-existing and deep-seated inequalities in Canadian society — and it's one the Liberals say they take to heart. The budget is expected to include an emphasis on supporting people who have been disadvantaged historically, and those who have been hardest hit by the pandemic. That includes seniors living in long-term care, young people, Indigenous people and non-white, racialized Canadians. The last full federal budget was tabled by former finance minister Bill Morneau (right) in March 2019. (Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press) Advocates say they want the budget to address high levels of unemployment among racialized Canadians, including those with Asian and Black heritage and Indigenous Canadians. "This could be the once-in-the-lifetime chance that the government will have this huge amount of fiscal power to correct some very long-standing inequalities," said Avvy Go, executive director of the Southeast Asian Legal Clinic. "It will create so many jobs that it will be a missed opportunity if we don't use the spending power to address some of the systemic racism, as well as systemic sexism within the labour market by creating jobs for more women, both men and women of colour, [and] people with disabilities." Pharmacare In the throne speech, the Liberals said they remain committed to a national, universal pharmacare system. The party's membership recently reinforced that commitment at the Liberal policy convention. But it's not clear that commitment means money in the budget to move the project forward. The government has taken only incremental steps since an advisory panel recommended creating a universal, single-payer public pharmacare system. The panel predicted that such a program would cost $3.5 billion over 10 years starting in 2022, rising to $15.3 billion annually in 2027. National pharmacare is a key NDP demand but some budget watchers believe the pandemic might further delay the initiative because it would require long-term structural spending and negotiations with the provinces — some of which are opposed to the very idea of a national pharmacare program.
On the road to mass-vaccination, the U.S. is so far ahead that it's detecting new obstacles that remain, for much of the world, an afterthought on a distant horizon. The proportion of the population who've received at least one dose is almost twice as high as in Canada, and it's 10 times higher for the fully vaccinated. The vaccine supply in most states has ballooned to more than one dose per adult — that's allowed half of adults and nearly 40 per cent of the total U.S. population to have received a shot. Nowadays when you text friends to tell them a local clinic has doses available, it's increasingly common to hear the reply: No thanks, I've already got mine. "It's pretty damn good," Paul Goepfert, a University of Alabama researcher who studies vaccines, said of the rollout so far. So he's optimistic, right? Not quite. In fact, Goepfert is worried that the U.S. might never cross that coveted threshold of herd immunity. "I'm skeptical," he said of whether the country will reach herd immunity. "At least not anytime soon." Vaccine hesitancy ranks atop his causes for concern. The increasing abundance of U.S. supply is now shifting attention to that other half of economics' most fundamental model: demand. Whether enough Americans take the vaccine matters not only here but elsewhere, as the world pursues that ill-defined immunity threshold, which most estimates peg at about three-quarters of the population. Blue states, red states The rate of vaccinations is still increasing across the U.S. but there's an emerging gap in how quickly different states are unloading supplies. And the gap is growing. The states seeing the biggest daily increases in vaccinations are churning through their supply — led by New Hampshire, which has now delivered at least one dose to 71 per cent of adults. Other states have used just two-thirds of their supply and the daily increases are smaller: Mississippi and Alabama, for instance, have delivered at least one dose to 38 per cent of adults. There's an eye-catching political trend developing. Of the states with the most doses administered per adult, 14 of the top 15 voted for Joe Biden. As for states administering the fewest doses, 14 of 15 voted for Donald Trump. Wilbert Marshall, 71, looks away while receiving the COVID-19 vaccine from Melissa Banks, right, a nurse at the Aaron E. Henry Community Health Service Center in Clarksdale, Miss., April 7. Nearly half of American adults have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, but there are some signs that rates are lower in Republican red states such as Mississippi than in Democrat-supporting blue states.(Rogelio V. Solis/The Associated Press) Goepfert's own experiences attest to the trendline in his state of Alabama. Just weeks ago, he was being bombarded with requests from people who hoped that, through his work, he might help them score still-rare vaccines. "I don't get those calls anymore," he said. Meanwhile, he works at an HIV clinic and struggles to convince some patients to take the vaccine, including people with serious pre-existing conditions. He describes a spectrum of vaccine hesitancy. Some skeptics can be convinced to get vaccinated, he says; others flat-out refuse. Some say no out of fear; others have no fear of COVID-19. One patient casually brushed off getting vaccinated, Goepfert said, telling him: "I don't wear a mask. I haven't gotten sick. Why should I get a vaccine?" Blue states are ahead in vaccinations. Atop the list is New Hampshire, seen here with a mass vaccination event last month. A whopping 71 per cent of adults in the state, and 58 per cent of the total population, have received at least one dose.(Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters) Pharmacy slots unfilled Vaccination appointments are going unfilled in certain places. There were vacant vaccination slots in dozens of CVS pharmacy locations on Thursday in Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama and Wyoming. Yet the slots were all booked at its locations in Connecticut, Delaware, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Minnesota. One North Carolina county plans to shut its mass-vaccination site after this month because of dropping demand. After an initial rush, the site located in an old K-Mart is getting a fraction of its former use; a lengthy waiting list for vaccines has evaporated, and patients now have more places to get vaccines in Carteret County. Herd immunity? Don't count on it anytime soon, says Paul Goepfert, a vaccine expert and doctor at the University of Alabama at Birmingham.(University of Alabama at Birmingham) "I'm worried," said Ralph Merrill, an engineer who sits on the county board. His county has fully vaccinated one-quarter of its population, around the state average but far from the eventual goal. "I'd be surprised if we get much above 50 per cent." He pauses and chuckles in mid-sentence when asked why he's worried: "There's a lot of people around here who … I don't think they want to take the vaccine." Like others, he describes vaccine hesitancy as coming in different varieties. At the Marine Corps base where he works, he said, some friends are cautiously skeptical; others offer wild conspiracy theories. The Trump card Trump won Carteret County, N.C., by 42 points. Merrill is convinced politics is driving anti-vaccination sentiment, especially among people who generally distrust government. The U.S. Congress anticipated that vaccine hesitancy might become a problem and set aside more than $1 billion in its new COVID relief law for a public awareness campaign. Trump's administration funded the vaccine operation. But he hasn't talked much about getting vaccinated. (Tom Brenner/Reuters) But Merrill sees a quicker, easier way to influence public opinion: get Trump to go on TV, talk about how his administration funded the development of vaccines, describe how he got vaccinated, and urge supporters to do the same. "He's like the idol to a group of people," Merrill said. "That would be a good thing for him to do." A wealth of polling data backs up the idea that vaccine hesitancy is highest among Republicans. Three polls released this month put the number of Republicans who don't want a vaccine in the neighbourhood of 40 per cent — that's roughly double the national average and multiple times higher than the ratio of anti-vaccine Biden supporters. Surveys also find higher-than average vaccine hesitancy among African Americans. The tricky math on herd immunity This is the kind of math that has Goepfert worried that herd immunity might prove elusive. Adults comprise 78 per cent of the U.S. population, and because vaccinations are mainly going to adults, he figures that nearly all adults will need antibodies from a vaccine or recent illness to get there. He doesn't see how that could happen with so many people hesitant to get vaccinated. Some U.S. states are now expanding the eligibility pool to include 16-year-olds. Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves, seen at a press conference in Jackson, Miss., in January, says he's working to fight vaccine hesitancy and falling demand in his state.(Rogelio V. Solis/The Associated Press) The governor of Mississippi, Tate Reeves, recently tried to convince some of the vaccine holdouts in his state by speaking forcefully about how he and his family have gotten vaccinated and announcing new mobile vaccination clinics in priority areas. "The next million shots are going to be harder to get than the last million. They're going be hard to get because of vaccine hesitancy," Reeves said at COVID-19 briefing in late March in which he announced that one million vaccine doses had been administered in the state. "We've got to get creative to get shots in arms. It was easy early on, in January, because we had a lot more demand than we had supply. We've always said that at some point, we're going to get to where there is as much, if not more, supply than there is demand. We're not there yet, but we're seeing the shift very, very quickly." U.S. President Joe Biden visits a vaccination site at Virginia Theological Seminary in Alexandria, Va., April 6. Virginia has vaccinated more than half of its adult population.(Evan Vucci/The Associated Press) Politics: Correlation isn't causation One infectious-disease expert and medical practitioner in the U.S. said it's simplistic to attribute vaccine hesitancy entirely to politics. Krutika Kuppalli, a doctor and researcher at the Medical University of South Carolina, said several factors shape your risk assessment, and it so happens these factors might correlate to political preference: the population density of your area, your education level, and whether you have regular access to health care. She agreed vaccination slots are filling more slowly in her area than before, and echoing other experts said hesitancy comes in different forms. Some issues are purely clerical: people struggling to navigate an appointment website, she said. More surprising are the stories that stem from misinformation — like one patient this week who expressed fear vaccines might worsen his unrelated condition. WATCH | U.S. pauses use of Johnson & Johnson vaccine over blood clot reports: What's the long-term outlook "The amount of the misinformation is unbelievable," she said. "It astounds me how much is out there." So what's next? Kuppalli suspects vaccines for adolescents are part of any solution for getting to herd immunity, and even then it won't be easy. She worries about new variants popping up in the many countries where vaccines remain rare, and said it's unclear whether they will be easier or harder to manage. We might need occasional vaccine booster shots to protect ourselves, she said. Goepfert also suspects we'll be getting booster shots, perhaps every couple of years. If things work out, he said, future variants will keep responding to vaccines, and COVID-19 might weaken into yet another form of the common cold. That's his optimistic scenario. WATCH | Being outdoors reduces, doesn't eliminate COVID-19 risk, experts say:
Friends and family are concerned about the well-being of a 65-year-old missing man in Moncton, N.B., who doesn't speak English or French. Abdulgadir Nur was last seen Thursday around 11:30 a.m. on Paul Street in Dieppe. He speaks Tigrinya, a language common to Eritrea and parts of Ethiopia, and some Arabic. Nancy Biddington, a friend of the family, has been part of a group searching for Nur since he was last seen. "We're very concerned," she said. Biddington described Nur as shy and said he is not likely to ask for help because of the language barrier. According to Biddington, Nur doesn't know his way around Moncton very well, aside from his daily travels in his neighborhood, and only walks or takes the bus. RCMP along with family and friends are searching for Abdulgadir Nur.(Submitted by Codiac Regional RCMP) "He only goes from his house to the language class," she said, noting he sometimes stop at the mall. Nur was missing once before. In September 2020, he was lost in the city for a day before he was found, according to Biddington. "He was just lost and he didn't know where he was," she said. "He was just walking. He didn't know how to get back home." Biddington said family and friends think that may have happened again. They have been searching the city for him. A group of 30 people searched for Nur until close to midnight Saturday. Searchers were planning to head out to look for Nur again Sunday afternoon. Nancy's husband, Ken, said they are asking people to check their backyards for Nur. Codiac Regional RCMP described Nur as five-foot-three and about 185 pounds. He has short white hair, a white beard, and brown eyes. Anyone with information on Nur's whereabouts is asked to contact the RCMP at 506-857-2400.
China and the United States are the world’s top carbon polluters, pumping out nearly half of the fossil fuel fumes that are warming the planet’s atmosphere.View on euronews
From pandemic restrictions to changing shopping habits, the future of malls looks bleak. But some experts see a hopeful future if malls mimic the blueprint pioneered at West Edmonton Mall, the largest shopping centre in Canada. Triple Five Group, which owns West Edmonton Mall, was banking on that success with its $5-billion US American Dream megamall in New Jersey. The 2.9 million-square-foot building boasts entertainment attractions — like a waterpark and mini-golf —- mirroring those of the Edmonton mall. But the pandemic derailed its grand opening in March 2020 and its capacity has been curtailed since its delayed opening in October. But that mall-as-entertainment blueprint should work out for American Dream in the post-pandemic long run, according to Mark Faithfull, a retail analyst based in London, England. "I think we'll see a lot of big shopping centres performing quite strongly," he told CBC's Edmonton AM. "Personally, I'm actually pretty confident about their future." Other malls should be taking note, he added. Across North America, malls are seeing hard times. According to Moody's Analytics, the estimated vacancy rate for regional malls in the United States could reach a high of 12.7 per cent in 2021, up from 10.5 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2020. Meanwhile, Canadian data solutions company Altus Group says the rental market is predicted to decrease by five to 10 per cent in top-quality malls, and by more than 10 per cent for lower-quality malls. At 5.2 million square feet, West Edmonton Mall has an indoor waterpark, an amusement park, a golf course and a sea-lion show. In the past three years, the mall has opened some high-profile retail stores including French brand Louis Vuitton and popular Japanese fashion brand Uniqlo. Faithfull said shopping centres that pivot to becoming a multi-use, entertainment centre will give people reasons other than shopping to go to malls in the future. John Pracejus, director of the school of retailing at the University of Alberta, agrees. "That does seem to be something that is likely to increase in the future, whether that's the kind of entertainment that's the kind at West Edmonton Mall with waterparks and roller-coasters and things like that," he said. "The other trend that you see is that there's some activities that we don't typically think of as taking place in malls that may increase. So, for example, the Edmonton public library now has a branch in the (Londonderry) mall and you might start seeing things like that." People visit the American Dream mall, located in East Rutherford, New Jersey, in December 2019. The planned grand opening of the mall, planned for March 2020, was disrupted by the pandemic.(Kena Betancur/AFP via Getty Images) And although massive attractions of West Edmonton Mall may not be viable for every mall in Canada, even things like restaurants, leisure centres and bars will generate more foot traffic. Both Faithfull and Pracejus note that retail-only malls that are currently struggling may continue to decline. In fact, Faithfull said that the pandemic only sped up the process for many malls that were doomed to go under due to a shift to online shopping in the past decade. "We're seeing things accelerated at 100 miles-an-hour," he said. Faithfull said once people are vaccinated and things start to go back to normal, it will likely be three to four months before shopping centres start bouncing back. "We'll start to see whether some of those trends during the pandemic are longer-term or whether they were just a reaction to that the people couldn't get out and about," he said.
Hong Kong will suspend flights from India, Pakistan and the Philippines from April 20 for two weeks after the N501Y mutant COVID-19 strain was detected in the Asian financial hub for the first time, authorities said in a statement late on Sunday. The three countries would be classified as "extremely high risk" after there had been multiple imported cases carrying the strain into Hong Kong in the past 14 days, the government said. Hong Kong has recorded over 11,600 cases in total and 209 deaths.
Canada's first budget in two years, to be presented to parliament on Monday, proposes a sales tax for online platforms and e-commerce warehouses, a digital services tax for Web giants and a luxury tax on items like yachts, government sources familiar with the document said. It will not include a wealth tax, a levy sought by the opposition New Democrats. Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's budget will need the support of at least one opposition group to pass.
BELGRADE, Serbia — Hamid Ahmadi still can feel the cold of the February night when Serbian police left him and two dozen other refugees in a forest. Crammed into a police van, the refugees from Afghanistan thought they were headed to an asylum-seekers' camp in eastern Serbia. Instead, they were ordered out near the country's border with Bulgaria in the middle of that night four years ago. In below-freezing temperatures and desperately in need of help, they had no choice but to head to Bulgaria — the country they had left just a day earlier. “I will not forget it as long as I live,” said Ahmadi, who was 17 at the time and now lives in Germany. “Even after a period of good life and stability, one cannot forget the tough times.” The Serbian border police had engaged in a pushback, or collective expulsion, one of many such actions along the travel routes used by migrants and refugees trying to reach Western Europe. But unlike most such illegal deportations, the officers' actions in February 2017 resulted in the Afghan refugees winning an unprecedented legal victory in Serbia's highest court. The Balkan country's constitutional Court ruled in December that the border control officers unlawfully deported the refugees and violated their rights. The court also ordered Serbian authorities to pay the 17 members of the group who brought the lawsuit 1,000 euros ($1,180) each in compensation. “The importance of this verdict is immense for Serbia,” said Belgrade lawyer Nikola Kovacevic, who represented the refugees in the case. It sends a “clear message to state authorities to harmonize their border practices with domestic and international law." The ruling is a rare official acknowledgment that countries in Europe conduct pushbacks in violation of European Union and international laws which ban forcibly returning people to other countries without looking into their individual circumstances or allowing them to apply for asylum. Although refugees and economic migrants passing through the Balkans regularly give accounts of the practice, authorities routinely deny that their agencies carry out pushbacks, which are difficult to prove and mostly go unpunished. Turned back and forth at various borders, people fleeing war and poverty spend months, if not years, on the road, exposed to harsh conditions and danger in the hands of people-smugglers and human traffickers. Sometimes, refugees and migrants are sent back over two or three borders it had taken them months to cross. Human rights groups have called repeatedly for governments to uphold their responsibilities involving refugee rights and accused the European Union of turning a blind eye to the illegal activity taking place at its doorstep. The United Nations mission in Bosnia called this month for urgent action to halt pushbacks along EU member Croatia's border with Bosnia after a U.N. team encountered 50 men with wounds on their bodies who reported authorities pushed them back and took their possessions away when they tried to enter Croatia. According to the U.N. refugee agency's office in Serbia and its partners, 25,180 people were pushed back into Serbia from Croatia, Bosnia, Hungary and Romania last year. Kovacevic, the lawyer in Serbia, said collective expulsions became increasingly common after the EU and Turkey made a 2016 agreement intended to curb migration to Europe. More than a million people from the Middle East, Africa and Asia had streamed to the continent the year before. The agreement called for Turkey to control the flow of people departing its territory in exchange for aid for the large number of Syrian refugees in Turkey, as well as other incentives. “All the borders have introduced the practice of systematic violations of the ban on collective expulsions,” Kovacevic said. “But at least now in Serbia, this was officially confirmed, not by a non-government organization, local or foreign, but the highest authority for protection of human rights.” To hide any evidence of wrongdoing, border control officers routinely strip refugees of mobile phones or documents. In the case of Ahmadi and the others, a clear trace of evidence was left behind thanks to what Kovacevic said was the “blatant arrogance” of the Serbian police who “thought they could do whatever they wanted." It started on Feb. 2, 2017, when 25 migrants, including nine children, were caught at the border with Bulgaria and brought to a nearby police station in Serbia. They were kept for hours in a basement room, then taken before a judge to face charges of illegally crossing the border. The judge, however, ruled that the group should be treated as refugees and taken to an asylum centre. Ahmadi, who spoke to the AP from Germany through an interpreter, said he clearly remembers when the judge asked them if they wanted to stay in Serbia. He said he was happy they would finally have a place in the camp after travelling through Turkey and Bulgaria. Hours later, inside the border police van that was supposed to take them to the camp, Ahmadi realized something was wrong. When police abandoned them in the forest, “I felt broken," he recalled. “I thought about my family at home." In the pitch dark and freezing temperatures, the refugees headed on foot toward Bulgaria — and straight into the hands of border police in that country. They managed to phone an interpreter in Serbia, who alerted refugee rights activists in both Serbia and in Bulgaria. The refugees stayed in camps in Bulgaria, some for days and others longer, before making it back to Serbia again and later moving on toward Western Europe. The rights lawyers later collected documentation left behind by the Serbian court and the Bulgarian authorities, establishing a clear trace of events that helped build the case in the court. Four years later, Kovacevic is trying to establish contact with all the people from Afghanistan he represented; they are scattered in countries that also include France and Bosnia. Coronavirus lockdowns have made it more difficult to establish contact and arrange money transfers for the damages they won, he said. “It’s taking a little longer, but we will get there,” smiled Kovacevic. Ahmadi, who was granted asylum in Germany five months ago, said he plans to use the damages to help him and his wife start a new life in Europe. He is now taking German language lessons before looking for a job. “This compensation means a lot to me,” he said. “I will be able to buy a bed and a little something for our flat once we rent it.” ___ Follow AP’s global migration coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/migration Jovana Gec, The Associated Press
PARIS — French President Emmanuel Macron says that while dialogue with Russia is essential, “clear red lines” carrying possible sanctions must also be drawn with Moscow over Ukraine. Referring to a recent buildup of Russian troops on Ukraine's border, Macron said in an interview with American broadcaster CBS News, “We will never accept new military operations on Ukrainian soil.” The West must demonstrate diplomacy and credibility in making that point, he said. “And I think after an unacceptable behaviour, indeed, we have to sanction,” Macron said when asked about the possibility of sanctions. “And I think we have to define clear red lines with Russia. This is the only way to be credible." However, he added “I think that sanctions are not sufficient in themselves, but sanctions are part of the package.” The interview aired Sunday on “Face the Nation.” It was recorded after Macron met Friday in Paris with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the two held a virtual conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Macron and Merkel demanded the withdrawal of Russian troops concentrated in western Russia as tensions with neighbouring Ukraine rise. The United States and NATO have described the buildup as the largest since 2014, when Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula and fighting broke out in eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed separatists. More than 14,000 people have died during the 7-year conflict in eastern Ukraine. Germany and France helped negotiate a 2015 peace deal for eastern Ukraine in Minsk, the capital of Belarus. Since taking office in 2017, Macron has worked for a constructive dialogue with Russia on a range of issues, and he continued to promote the need for dialogue in the “Face the Nation” interview. “I'm sure that President (Vladimir) Putin can be ready to reopen dialogue,” the French leader said. “We need an open and frank dialogue with Russia” regarding a raft of topics from arms control to stabilizing world crises. The Associated Press
Simply including more women at organizations without addressing underlying power structures and practices does little good. Representation isn't synonymous with change.
According to a recent Angus Reid Survey, 28 per cent of B.C. respondents stated they would like to see housing prices drop by 30 per cent or more. The results were divided along homeownership lines — 70 per cent of Canadians are homeowners so it's not surprising that roughly 70 per cent of those surveyed wanted price appreciation whereas the remaining, almost 30 per cent, were hoping for a real estate crash. Unfortunately, the real estate market doesn't care about these surveys or what people think, it ebbs and flows based on supply and demand and is often manipulated by various government policies. Current policies, such as low interest rates and income replacement programs, not only prevented a real estate crash in 2020-2021 but pushed prices much higher. As for demand, it is mostly coming from local people buying a home to live in rather than foreign buyers or real estate investors. According to the Scotia Bank 2021 housing poll, 39 per cent of Canadians aged 18 to 34 accelerated their home-buying plans to take advantage of the low interest rates and, compared to the previous year, home purchases within this age group were up by 23 per cent. According to this survey, lots of young people can and were buying real estate. The bull and bear cases The bull case for real estate is founded on the historically low interest rates and unusually high rate of savings among Canadians — this combination is positive for real estate. On the supply side, there isn't enough to keep up with the demand and that's before 400,000 immigrants settle into our cities as soon as the travel restrictions are lifted. According to the bulls, the additional demand should soak up supply thereby pushing prices higher. Pre-sale condo market prices are rising due to the higher cost of labour, materials and government regulations, writes Mark Ting.(Darryl Dyck/Canadian Press) The bear case for real estate is that a lot of the demand has been pushed forward due to the low interest rates. This demand should subside as more buyers find their homes. We are also seeing more supply coming online. Many analysts believe the market is currently overheated, but expect it to cool over the next couple of months as demand decreases and supply increases. After considering both the bear and bull arguments, over the long term, I expect prices will keep going up mainly due to excessive money printing by the central bank, higher construction costs and Canada's immigration targets. Changes to the stress test In response to the hot market, as of June 1, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions is proposing to increase the floor of the stress test for uninsured mortgages to 5.25 per cent. The result of this change is that borrowers would qualify for approximately 4.5 per cent less of a mortgage. The hope is that the higher stress test will push some potential buyers out of the market, thus reducing demand and cooling the market. Buyers who need to qualify under the current, more favourable, stress test rules must now find a property and complete their purchase before June 1st. This should push forward some sales but expect a drop-off once the deadline has passed. Overall, as the stress test change only affects buyers who have at least a 20 per cent down payment, I don't think it will have a meaningfully impact on housing affordability. In fact, we are seeing the opposite happening in the pre-sale condo market where prices are increasing due to the higher cost of labour, materials and government regulations. According to the Scotia Bank 2021 housing poll, 39 per cent of Canadians aged 18 to 34 accelerated their home-buying plans to take advantage of low interest rates.(Katerina Georgieva/CBC) Ultimately, it will be higher interest rates that will cool real estate prices. Currently the bond market is hinting at a potential rate hike over the near term, but I don't expect to see a spike in rates anytime soon. If or when rates increase, real estate prices should moderate and then trend down — which is healthy for a market. It's important that our real estate markets cycles experiences some negative years but remember, similar to the stock markets, for every negative year there are usually several positive years. Overall, with both markets, the long-term trend continues to be higher. This column is part of CBC's Opinion section. For more information about this section, please read our FAQ.
