Canadian opinions shifting to the left in terms of social issues, new data suggests

New data released by Ekos Research this week could prove to be a double whammy for the Harper Conservatives.

On Wednesday, Ekos released it’s latest federal vote intention poll: It states that support for the Tories is at a nine-year low.

"Not only would the government be in no position to aspire to repeat its 2011 success, it may not even achieve leader of the opposition with these numbers. While we find this scenario unlikely, the continued flagging of Conservative Party fortunes now renders this a real possibility,” Ekos CEO Frank Graves wrote in his analysis of the survey.

"The Liberal ascension under Justin Trudeau is no mere blip; it is a long, slow march. Secondly, the Conservative decline is no ephemeral blip caused by some controversy or wobble. It is a steady and grim decline along a straight line of descent. If this were an ECG, the prognosis would be pretty bleak."

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While other pollsters don’t have the Tories near a figurative death, they do have the Liberals stretching their lead.

Abacus Data’s poll, which was also released this week, had the Liberals at 38 per cent support, an eight point lead over the Conservatives. The latest Angus Reid poll has Justin Trudeau’s party at 36 per cent and the Tories at 30.

Certainly mid-term polls provide no guarantees of electoral victory, but the trends should be of concern to Tory strategists.

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So should this.

As part of a conference organized by progressive think-tank Canada2020, Graves presented data on Canadians’ changing attitudes and values over the past 15 years.

Using social issues as his basis, Graves illustrated that Canadians are clearly shifting to the left.

He’s calling it a “progressive wave.”

Question: “Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following statement: I would support the reintroduction of capital punishment”

Question: “Thinking about your general views on abortion, would you say you are more pro-life or pro-choice?”

Question: “Please rate the extent to which you agree or disagree with the following statement: “Possession of small amounts of marijuana for personal use SHOULD NOT BE A CRIME.”

Question: “Forgetting about your current party choice, do you consider yourself a small “l” liberal or a small “c” conservative?”

In recent years, some – here and here – have suggested that Canadians are shifting to the right. But Graves’ analysis is quite compelling.

“I think most Canadians find themselves increasingly at odds with a leader who clearly espouses right wing values which are increasingly in a state of tension with a clear public movement away from small-c conservative values,” Graves recently told Yahoo Canada News.

"On most of the key social issues of the day Canadians are shifting to the center-left.”

What do you think?

Are Canadians as a whole becoming more progressive?

Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below.

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