Canada PoliticsCrimea: What’s the next move for the international community, Russia?
The international community is circling the wagons, so to speak, following the weekend referendum in Crimea which predictably resulted in a virtual concencus to secede from Ukraine.
While legislators in Crimea and Russia — buoyed by a 97 per cent vote — move quickly to unite, Canada and its G-7 brethren continue to denounce the action.
"The so-called referendum held today was conducted with Crimea under illegal military occupation. Its results are a reflection of nothing more than Russian military control," Prime Minister Stephen Harper said in a statement on Sunday.
"This “referendum” is illegitimate, it has no legal effect, and we do not recognize its outcome. As a result of Russia's refusal to seek a path of de-escalation, we are working with our G-7 partners and other allies to coordinate additional sanctions against those responsible.
"Any solution to this crisis must respect the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine as well as the constitution of Ukraine. Mr. Putin's reckless and unilateral actions will lead only to Russia's further economic and political isolation from the international community."
[ Related: Former Liberal MP warns that it’s a mistake to rule out military action in Ukraine ]
So, what is next?
What will Canada and the international community do? What will Russia do?
Here are some of the latest prognostications and proposals being bandied about.
More condemnation, travel bans and asset freezes:
On Monday, both the United State and the European Union hit Russia with new sanctions. Reuters is reporting that EU announced travel bans and asset freezes against 21 Russian officials believed to be involved in the 'occupation' of Crimea while the United States did the same against seven individuals.
The EU may institute more sanctions within the next few days as EU leaders meet for a summit in Brussels.
[ Related: U.S., EU impose sanctions after Crimea moves to join Russia ]
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Stephen Harper will be the first G-7 leader to travel to Ukraine, later this week, to meet with the interim Government to discuss what other support is needed.
Talk of economic sanctions:
The Telegraph newspaper in the UK is reporting about a confidential EU diplomatic draft which "warns of longer-term trade and economic sanctions against Russia similar to the international blockade that has devastated Iran's economy."
The biggest lever the EU has is Russian oil: According to Bloomberg, Russia exported $160 billion worth oil to Europe and the United States in 2012. But, according to one expert, energy sanctions aren't feasible.
"I can't see how this can be done," former Liberal MP and operator of Tomorrow's Gas Price Today, Dan McTeague told Yahoo Canada News.
Europe won't accept this..there is simply no other substitute and I don't think Europe wants to re-open it's coal generators.... shuttered for over 25 years.
"The US energy sanction thing was tried when the Kremlin cracked down on Poland in 1990. Europe didn't agree then and given the massive energy commercial interests in London and fuel needs in Germany, such a proposal is DOA."
McTeauge adds that such if Europe were to embrace such sanctions, Canadian consumers would also suffer at the pumps.
Fear of further provocations:
As explained by the Economist, there are growing fears that Russia will not stop at Crimea.
"Worryingly, Russia may not stop at Crimea. The Kremlin has been stirring separatist movements in the east of Ukraine, in particular in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, which have traditionally leaned towards Russia. It has stoked old divisions and orchestrated rallies demanding referendums. To demonstrate its resolve Russia also staged military exercises on Ukraine’s eastern border. While Russia would have little problem invading Ukraine, it would be much harder for it to hold the ground where it lacks local strongmen—at least so far. Fearing Russia’s invasion into its mainland, Ukraine has called for military mobilisation. Sunday's referendum in Crimea is by no means the end of the crisis."
The case for the West to provide arms to Ukraine's army:
In light of the above, former Liberal MP Borys Wrzesnewskyj is proposing that the West provide weapons to the Ukrainian army.
"Tens of thousands of men are signing-up for this new national guard and for the army as volunteers but we can't have people go to the front[lines] if Russia invades to face Russian tanks with pistols or rifles. Similar to the invasion of Poland during World War II, we had the Polish cavalry going against tanks," Wrzesnewskyj told CBC News on Friday.
"And that's why the Western countries and NATO have to supply arms to Ukraine to provide a credible defence to prevent war from taking place."
(Photo from Canadian Press)
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