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Doug Ford's road map to the mayoral seat in Toronto

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Can Doug Ford actually win Toronto’s mayoralty race?

What does he have to do to make it happen?

Last Friday, the electoral landscape in Toronto was thrown into a frenzy when the ‘brothers Ford’ pulled a last-minute switcheroo.

Due to his ailing health, Rob Ford is no longer a mayoral candidate but is a city council candidate in Ward 2. In his stead, Doug Ford is now in the race to be the city’s 65th mayor.

On the surface, it appears that Doug Ford couldn’t do any worse than his younger brother would have.

One would think that Doug will retain the Ford-nation support and could gain votes from people who were turned-off by Rob’s drug, alcohol and character issues.

But according to Ekos Research pollster Frank Graves, it’s not that straightforward.

"Our private polling suggested that Ford Nation had morphed from a sort of Tea Party- like constituency of older , middle socioeconomic status homeowners to a much younger and largely disenfranchised group of largely male voters what some have called the ‘precariat’”, Graves told Yahoo Canada News, noting that this group doesn’t come out to vote in big numbers.

"The proposition becomes even tougher as Doug Ford probably doesn’t have the same traction with that group."

Graves who boasts about being ”the only pollster to correctly call the Ford victory” in 2010 does have some informal advice for the older Ford.

"[Doug Ford’s] best chance may be to resurrect the old Ford-nation and run hard on an updated stop the gravy train theme," Graves imparts.

"Given the split between the Chow and Tory camps appeal, this harder edged austerity model might find an open voter niche."

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Political consultant Marcel Wieder agrees that Ford needs to find some way to change the theme of this election from transit to cutting waste.

He adds, however, that Doug’s first order of business should be to step out of Rob’s shadow.

"[Doug] has to overcome the accusation that the Ford family is treating this as their inherent right to rule as some have said," Wieder told Yahoo Canada News.

"To do this he will have talk about his small business background and that he is his own person. Yes he will continue in Rob’s footsteps but he will need to put out some."

In terms of geography, Wieder the CEO of the Aurora Strategy Group advises that Ford focus his efforts on the North York region.

"The way the map is playing out both Chow and Tory will split the old city of Toronto. Ford has an edge in Etobicoke and Scarborough but it is the former Mel Lastman fiefdom that will decide who will be Mayor," Wieder says.

"North York is more fiscally conservative and that should play to his strength. However, John Tory has been very active there and knows a lot of key players that can help secure the support he needs to win."

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The latest Forum Research poll should be relatively encouraging to Team-Ford in that it suggests that Doug is very much in this race. Out of those surveyed, 41 per cent said that they support John Tory while 34 per back Doug Ford.

Chow remains in third place with only 19 per cent support.

According to Wieder, Ford needs Chow’s number to increase.

"He has to hope that Chow’s campaign gets back on track and takes votes away from Tory," Wieder says.

"A split between Chow and Tory is good news for Ford."

Ford is expected to begin his campaign in earnest this week.

We’ll see if he follows our experts’ advice.

(Photo courtesy of The Canadian Press)

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