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Election buzz heats up in Ontario

It’s beginning to look a lot like an election campaign in the province of Ontario.

The minority Liberal government will table their budget — their third of their current mandate — on May 1st. Like the previous budgets, the Kathleen Wynne Liberals will need the support of one of the opposition parties in order to stay in power.

So what does premier do? Instead of trying to woo the opposition parties with honey she goes after them with vinegar.

Late last week, the governing Liberals released two attack ads:

Here’s the one against the Tories:

Here’s the one targeting the New Democrats:

The segments, posted on the Ontario Liberal YouTube page, are a bit weak.

Right leaning pundit and political communications consultant Gerry Nicholls calls them a textbook case of what not to do in attack ads. On a blog post on his website, he criticizes Wynne's "boring monotone voice" and the fact that the premier is the one doing the attacking.

[ Related: Embattled Ontario Liberals set crucial budget date for May 1 ]

Regardless of their quality, could these ads be a harbinger of a spring election?

Tim Hudak's PC's say that they have no intention of supporting the document which is expected to include $29 billion transit and transportation upgrades, an Ontario pension plan and a promise not to raise income taxes on middle-income earners.

The NDP is the wildcard — they've talked tough ahead of the last two budgets but decided to prop-up the government anyways.

But this time, it looks like they're getting ready for an election.

On Friday, the Toronto Star reported that the New Democrats had scheduled "two days of intensive campaign training for potential volunteers in Toronto."

On Monday, OntarioNewsWatch.com cited NDP sources who seem to suggest that an election is imminent.

"Andrea Horwath and her most senior advisors have made the decision to pull the plug on the minority Liberal government and go to a spring election, sources have told OntarioNewsWatch.com.

"Ms. Horwath and her inner circle have determined they cannot be seen to be propping up Kathleen Wynne's minority Liberals now that criminal charges may be laid in connection with the alleged wiping of 24 computer hard drives in the Premier's Office."

Ultimately, it's the opinion polls that might dictate whether or not the NDP will support or oppose the May 1st budget.

The problem right now is that polls, at least the public ones, are a little confusing.

"EKOS conducted a poll between March 27 and April 3, just as the new gas plant allegations were made, and found the Liberals ahead with 32 per cent, with the New Democrats in second at 29 per cent and the Progressive Conservatives in third with 27 per cent," polling analyst Eric Grenier noted on his website.

"Forum conducted a poll more recently, on April 7, and found the Tories surging ahead with 38 per cent to 31 per cent for the Liberals and just 23 per cent for the New Democrats."

Should those polls become more clear and more favourable to the NDP, Ontarians could be heading to the polls as early as June 26th.

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