What to expect, and not to expect, from Ontario’s budget

The one thing that everyone in Ontario can expect when the Liberal government announces its budget later today is their Conservative opposition decrying the document as meaningless and demanding the NDP side with them to force an election.

PC Leader Tim Hudak doesn't need to read the budget, or weigh its merits. It is written in the stars, and in several pre-budget speeches, press releases and prepackaged sound bites.

“It’s clear that the Premier and her team are incapable of governing effectively,” Hudak has said. And as such, considering propping up the government on the back of budget promises is like putting a fresh coat of paint on a collapsing house.

Beyond that, no one knows exactly what to expect from today’s spending plan. Finance Minister Charles Sousa has made a few key announcements in recent days, so we can expect to see those spelled out in full. But there are bound to be a surprise or two along the way. That’s what makes Budget Day so much… fun?

[ Related: 4 key questions about today's Ontario budget ]

Here are a few things guaranteed to be in the budget announcement at 4 p.m., as well as a few that are possible and some we will almost certainly not see today.

What will be in the budget

Reduction on auto insurance - The Ontario government has promised to cut auto insurance premiums by an average of 15 per cent. It will save nine million drivers an average annual $225 per vehicle. This was an NDP plan before it was a Liberal announcement, and likely intended to lure support from Andrea Horwath’s party. Which leads us to –

More treats for the NDP – The Liberals will need their support on the budget to avoid a quick election, so expect a few goodies dangled to the left. Those will include $295 million support for a youth employment fund and $260 million to improve home care assistance.

Ontario Music Fund – Announced yesterday, this fund would provide $45 million over three years toward improving the province’s music industry and supporting its artists. The province’s music industry was worth $429.3 million in 2011 – 81 per cent of the country’s total revenue. Sousa obviously sees some hip room for groovy progress here.

Lower-than-expected deficit – Sousa has already announced that last year’s deficit is a measly $9.8 billion, much less than the $14.8 billion that had been expected. Time to dance? Not exactly. Premier Kathleen Wynne told the Globe and Mail she wants to see minimal spending growth, capping an increase at one per cent.

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What might be in the budget

The introduction of toll lanes – The Toronto Star reports that Sousa hinted at “optional toll lanes” on highways, although no hard numbers or announcements have been made. The idea would be for that revenue to go toward public transit projects. But with the province's Metrolinx oversight agency about to make its own recommendations, this could be more of a call for conversation than a recommendation.

Spending cuts – As the Globe points out, very little has been said about how they plan to slay the deficit by 2017-18. What type of reforms, spending cuts or magic bean-purchases will be tapped to address that now?

Enough to earn the NDP support – It bears repeating, this is what the budget is really going to come down to. Is it attractive enough to keep the Liberal government afloat? Hudak is pressuring Horwath to side with him, but that would launch the second election in less than two years. And would the NDP and their supporters fare any better at the other end? "We're going to take our time and be very thoughtful about this," Horwath said. They will give 110 per cent, listen to the public, take it one day at a time and let us know in a couple days.

What won’t be in the budget

Money for gas plant construction – Expect this issue to receive a wide berth. The Conservatives are pushing to topple the government on its history of spending on, and cancelling, gas plants. A new report found that a cancelled Oakville plant cost taxpayers $310 million – and that was supposed to be the cheap one. An inquiry is ongoing, and that earth remains politically salted. It will be interesting to see what, if any, energy announcements are made today.

Something to secure Tory support – All this talk about wooing NDP support and nothing for the Progressive Conservatives? With Hudak vowing to vote against the budget on principle, don’t expect the Grits to waste any efforts reason with him. The Canadian Press reports that Sousa could delay tax breaks for big business by three years to help loosen the purse strings for other pursuits. “The NDP have made some requests. We’ve met all those requests and much more,” Sousa said. Bully for everyone but the Tories.

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