Harper's Conservatives make slight gains in approval ahead of election year

They say the only survey that matters is the one on election day, but with Canada going to the polls next year, this is one the Conservative government should at least make note of – for better or for worse.

A new poll suggests more Canadians think the country is going in the “wrong direction” than the right one, and doubt in Prime Minister Stephen Harper is high, though it has improved from this time last year.

The Mood of Canada survey released by Nanos Research and the Institute for Research in Public Policy on Thursday is a mixed message for Harper’s team. While the confidence measures are low, they are up from last year and actually end a two-year slide.

According to the survey, 45 per cent of Canadians feel the government’s performance in 2014 was “very poor” or “somewhat poor,” while 48 per cent of respondents say the country is going in the wrong direction. This compared to 37 per cent who say Harper’s performance is “very good” or “somewhat good” – an 11-point rise from 2013. Also, 37 per cent of respondents said the government is taking Canada in the right direction – a six-point improvement from last year.

If the numbers appear positive, it is only in comparison to where they sat last year, which was a historic low for Harper’s eight years in office.

“A year ago, Harper had sunk to the lowest performance ratings Nanos had measured since he became prime minister, with the percentage of those saying the country was headed in the wrong direction never greater,” writes Bruce Wallace, editor of Policy Options magazine.

"Conventional wisdom at the beginning of 2014 had the federal Conservatives limping to the end of an uninspiring mandate, still recoiling from the lingering, tawdry scandal in the Senate that reached into the Prime Minister’s Office."

Other issues that marred Harper’s popularity included the Keystone XL pipeline, the death of popular former Finance Minister Jim Flaherty and the popularity of Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.

Whereas those issues led to Harper’s low 2013 rating, more recent events may be responsible for its rise in 2014.

"In the wake of recent events, drift gave way to fear. The atrocities committed by ISIS in the Middle East dragged the country back into war. There was alarm at the distant yet terrifying spectre of an Ebola contagion. A gunman’s deadly attack on Parliament Hill and the murder of a Canadian soldier by a Quebec man apparently radicalized by extremist propaganda pushed domestic security issues higher on the agenda," Wallace writes.

The conflicting message of the Mood of Canada survey – which suggests the fate of Harper and the Conservatives are improving, but still down – is echoed in separate approval polls released earlier this week.

Forum Research reported on Monday that Trudeau’s Liberals were in “comfortable” majority government territory – with 44 per cent support across the country compared to the Conservatives’ 33 per cent – and leading the Tories in seat-rich Ontario.

An EKOS Research survey released the same day, however, put the two parties in a statistical tie. According to that poll, 31.8 per cent of voters intended to back the Liberals, while 30.8 per cent intended to back the Conservatives.

Those numbers are a marked improvement from an EKOS survey taken in October, when the Liberals were found to have a solid lead – 38.5 per cent to 26.4 per cent – over the Conservatives.

"Through a combination of propitious events and sound political game, Stephen Harper sees himself having gone from the real possibility of an unenviable descent from majority Prime Minister to leader of the third party, to now being in position to aspire to a fourth government," the study noted.

In a year ending interview with CBC’s Peter Mansbridge, Harper said that despite rumours to the contrary he plans on running for re-election.

"[I]t’s my intention to lead the party once again and, and look, I’m looking forward to the debate and I think we have a pretty good chance," he said, according to CBC.

With the election currently scheduled for Oct. 19, the Conservative’s ball appears to be bouncing in the right direction at the right time.

Approval may still be low, but not historically so. And it’s improving every day.

No doubt, Tory strategists have taken notice.