In statistical dead heat, parties hire political rainmakers

The three main federal parties are in a statistical dead heat, with a little more than three weeks left to woo voters.

So brace yourselves. The campaign trail is about to get rough, says one pundit.

“We saw that in the French debate. There were some personal attacks, which probably might become more [frequent] because the three parties are so close together right now and trying to get ahead,” says Cara Camcastle, a political science professor at Simon Fraser University.

“That might take more dirty politics.”

Dirty or not, it will take a lot more politicking.

The latest polls aggregated by ThreeHundredEight.com put the Conservatives at 30.8 per cent of decided voters, Liberals 30.7 per cent and the NDP 28.7 per cent. The poll roundup released Friday gives the Green Party 4.9 per cent and the Bloc Québécois 4 per cent.

Last week the NDP averaged 30.7 per cent, the Tories 30 per cent and the Liberals 29.8 per cent — tied for all intents and purposes.

With so little daylight between the parties, the New Democrats have brought in a political rainmaker who has worked on the U.S. Democratic campaigns of both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

NDP adviser Jeremy Bird, who worked for Obama in 2012 and more recently on Clinton’s political action committee, is described by the New York Times as the architect of the grassroots and online organizing efforts that vaulted Obama to electoral victory.

More recently, Bird was an adviser on an unsuccessful campaign to oust Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel earlier this year.

For their part, earlier this month the Conservative team welcomed Australian political strategist Lynton Crosby as a campaign adviser.

Crosby’s resume includes the successful campaigns of British Prime Minister David Cameron and former Australian prime minister John Howard.

Crosby is described by the Globe and Mail as a “master of wedge politics — where parties exploit social issues such as crime or race or immigration to split public opinion in their favour.”

The Liberals did not respond to requests for information about their campaign team.

Camcastle says all three front-runners are looking for fresh ideas.

“All three parties are neck-and-neck but they’re not succeeding yet to overtake the others. They want new ideas that might give them the edge,” she says.

These last three weeks are “extremely important,” she adds.

The Conservatives are trying to stop their slide in the polls and the Liberals and NDP are fighting it out for the anti-Conservative vote, she says.

The Obama campaign was very successful in attracting young voters and voters who hadn’t cast ballots before. Past election results show that youth voters tend to cast ballots to the left, when they do cast ballots.

“For the NDP, this could be very important,” Camcastle says.

Despite the historically long campaign — 11 weeks rather than the typical 37 days — they’re just beginning to think about the issues and weigh their decisions, she says.

“Many people haven’t tuned into the election yet,” she says. “For many people, this is when they’re starting to make their decision.”

Voters should expect to see a lot more election advertising and a lot more direct attacks by party leaders, Camcastle says.

“At this point, there’s still a majority who are undecided, so there’s a need to somehow draw them into the campaign.”