“Justin factor” helps to buoy Liberals in byelection opinion polls

When it comes to byelections, there are generally two schools of thought.

The first one is that they are a harbinger for a general election; a referendum — if you will — on the government.

The second theory suggests that pundits should pay little attention to byelections — that they are a different beast dependent on local issues and star candidates.

So, which narrative should we believe?

As with most things, the answer probably lies in the middle.

[ Related: Stephen Harper calls four byelections for November ]

On Monday, Forum Research released their first poll on the four federal byelections — in Bourassa (Quebec), in Toronto Centre (Ontario), in Provencher (Manitoba), and in Brandon Souris (Manitoba) — now slated for November 25th.

If you believe the first theory — that byelections are a sign of things to come —then the poll is great news for the Liberals and bad news for the Tories and NDP.

Forum suggests that Justin Trudeau's party is poised to win three out of the four ridings for a net gain of one seat.

Bourassa (Quebec):

- Poll: Emmanuel Dubourg (LPC) 47 per cent; Stephane Moraille (NDP) 18 per cent; Daniel Mailhot (BQ) 15 per cent

- Incumbent: Denis Coderre (LPC)

- Results from last election: LPC: 40.9 per cent; NDP: 32.3 per cent; BQ: 16.1 per cent; CPC: 8.8 per cent

Toronto Centre (Ontario):

- Poll: Chrystia Freeland (LPC) 45 per cent; Linda McQuaig (NDP) 30 per cent; Geoff Pollock (CPC) 18 per cent

- Incumbent: Bob Rae (LPC)

- Results from last election: LPC: 41.0 per cent; NDP: 30.2 per cent; CPC: 22.6 per cent

Brandon-Souris (Manitoba):

- Poll: Rolf Dinsdale (LPC) 39 per cent; Larry Maguire (CPC) 35 per cent; Cory Szczepanski (NDP) 12 per cent

- Incumbent: Merv Tweed (CPC)

- Results from last election: CPC: 63.7 per cent; NDP: 25.2 per cent; GPC: 5.7 per cent; LPC: 5.4 per cent

Provencher (Manitoba):

- Poll: Ted Falk (CPC) 56 per cent; Terry Hayward (LPC) 29 per cent

- Incumbent: Vic Toews (CPC)

- Results from last election: CPC: 70.6 per cent; NDP: 17.9 per cent; LPC: 6.7 per cent

The biggest surprise of the poll numbers is how well the Liberals are doing in Brandon Souris, a perennial Conservative stronghold.

"For the Liberals to be leading in Bourassa is expected, and in Toronto Centre, it's
to be anticipated," Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff, said in a press release.

"But for a federal Liberal to be leading in Brandon‐Souris is a strange result indeed. The Justin factor seems to be working right across the country."

Trudeau has spent a significant amount of time in Manitoba of late and it looks like it's paying off.

"The Liberal Party of Canada knows that Canadians want representatives to be their voice in Ottawa, not Mr. Harper’s voice in their communities. They deserve better," Trudeau said in a statement, on Sunday.

"Liberals are taking every by-election seriously. I have travelled across this country and I have heard Canadians’ calls for something new, something better."

[ Related: Manitoba food bank worker confronts Justin Trudeau on his pot policy ]

You can expect the Tories to battle hard in Brandon Souris as well.

As recently explained by Sun News' David Akin, the Conservatives didn't lose a seat that they had in the first 20 federal byelections since 2006.

They did, however, lose a seat in the 21st bylection — that was Peter Penashue's riding in Labrador.

Brandon Souris could very well be their second loss.

(Photo from the Canadian Press)

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