Liberal MP Denis Coderre to run for mayor in Montreal: reports

The cat — as they say — is out of the bag.

After months of speculation, it appears that Liberal MP and former Cabinet Minister Denis Coderre will indeed run for the mayoralty of Montreal.

Earlier this week, a source told La Presse that Coderre intends to make an official announcement on May 16th and that will resign his seat in the House of Commons at the end of the current Parliamentary session in June. The election takes place on November 13, 2013.

The Gazette is reporting that Coderre has already registered a political party name with the Quebec elections watchdog: the name of the party will be 'Denis Coderre Team For Montreal.'

Yahoo! Canada News caught up with political scientist Bruce Hicks, a Fellow at Carleton University and an expert on Quebec politics, to get an understanding of what Coderre's candidacy means especially in light of the scandals that have plagued Montreal's City Hall for years.

[ Related: Quebec’s anti-corruption forces raid offices at Montreal’s City Hall ]

Here are his responses:

Yahoo! Canada News: Will Denis Coderre run for Mayor of Montreal?

Bruce Hicks: Denis Coderre has been exploring the idea of running for Mayor of Montreal for some time. He had promised an announcement once the race for leader of the Liberal Party of Canada was over.

I suspect the two reasons for the delay has been threefold. First, the daily revelations at the Charbonneau Commission would cause anyone to pause.

Second, changes to the electoral financing laws enacted in response to revelations at Charbonneau have fundamentally changed the game. And third, he has likely been weighing the merits of using an existing municipal political party which had an established infrastructure like Union Montreal (which has been tainted by allegations made at the Charbonneau Commission) versus creating a new party that is unblemished but has no machinery.

I think this exploratory phase is largely over and on May 16 he will unveil his running mates (for the various council seats) and launch his campaign.

[ Related: Montreal municipal politics already has a "Denis Coderre" party registered ]

Y! Canada: Who are his competitors?

Hicks: The leading contenders against Coderre will be Vision Montreal’s Louise Harel and Projet Montreal’s Pierre Bergeron.

What Union Montreal will do now that Coderre will not be their candidate remains to be seen. While many of the Union Montreal councillors resigned and chose to sit as independents in the wake of the scandal — including current Mayor Michael Appelbaum — not all did so it will be interesting to see if the ones who did not resign try to resurrect the party and can recruit a serious contender for the mayor’s position.

Absent a serious contender from Union Montreal, while there will be other candidates/parties, the race is likely to be between these three individuals: Coderre, Harel and Bergeron.

Y! Canada: What are his chances of winning?

Hicks: Coderre’s chances of winning are probably greater than one third. In the last election, it was a close three way race. Incumbent mayor Gerald Tremblay (the Union Montreal candidate) won with 38 percent of the vote over Louise Harel’s 33 percent and Pierre Bergeron’s 25 percent.

Coderre’s advantage lies in the fact that he is an outsider and thus personally untainted by any of the allegations raised at the Charbonneau Commission. This is a large advantage and would make him the odds-on favourite to win. But the side-effect of all the allegations of corruption and collusion at the city of Montreal is that voters, who do not vote in large numbers (usually only 30-40 percent of voters in Canada bother to cast a ballot in municipal elections), are going to be turned off and thus organization will be key to winning.

Launching a brand new party is a disadvantage as there is no existing war chest, employees, volunteers and local borough and city organizations. This campaign will be largely an artifact of Coderre’s personal reputation.

Y! Canada: Is [Coderre] what Montreal needs?

Hicks: Part of the task assigned to the Charbonneau Commission is to propose solutions so that the improprieties it uncovers do not happen again. So I am optimistic that the province and the next mayor, irrespective of political stripe, will be putting in place procedures and safeguards so that procurement in the future will be transparent and above board.

But the residents of Montreal also need to have their confidence restored. A high profile outsider, like Coderre, could go a long way to restoring Montrealers’ confidence. Of course much will depend on how the campaign unfolds.

(Photo courtesy the Canadian Press)

Are you a politics junkie?
Follow @politicalpoints on Twitter!