Liberal red tidal wave expected to hit N.L. shores next month

A map full of red ridings in Atlantic Canada made it clear to many early observers that the Liberals were on their way to victory in Monday night’s federal election. And the decisive change in Ottawa could mean serious losses for the incumbent Progressive Conservatives in Newfoundland and Labrador’s provincial election next month.

“I would definitely not expect a Progressive Conservative government,” Amanda Bittner, an associate political science professor at Memorial University in St. John’s, tells Yahoo Canada News. “Right now the real competition is between the [PC and NDP] parties for who will be Opposition.”

Residents of Canada’s newest province head to the polls on Nov. 30 to choose their next provincial government, and all signs are that the next government will be Liberal.

Liberal support in the province sits at 48 per cent among committed voters, according to polling done by CRA in early September, compared to 25 per cent for the NDP and 27 per cent for the Progressive Conservatives, with 28 per cent still undecided. Premier Paul Davis’s approval rating was pegged in the same poll at just 24 per cent, compared to 42 per cent for Liberal Leader Dwight Ball.

“There is a general sense that the Progressive Conservative government in power right now has had many leaders over the last couple of years, and there’s been a lot of flux,” Bittner says. “So people seem to be kind of getting ready for a change.”

If the Liberal Party wins in Newfoundland and Labrador next month, Atlantic Canada won’t just be a sea of red federally. New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island all currently have Liberal governments, so a win in Newfoundland and Labrador would cement the party’s strong position in eastern Canada.

But a Liberal win provincially in Newfoundland and Labrador isn’t necessarily a reflection of the party’s majority win federally, Bittner says.

Desire for change

“It’s less about will the federal Liberal victory lead to the provincial Liberal victory,” Bittner says of what the party’s majority win could mean for results in Newfoundland and Labrador. The Progressive Conservatives have held power in the province for about 14 years, so a general desire for change has been around since before Justin Trudeau and the federal Liberal victory on Monday.

What will be more interesting to watch than a Liberal win, Bittner says, is what happens with the parties that don’t form the government. The NDP lost two St. John’s federal ridings, including one considered safe, to the Liberals, but the provincial NDP had their best election results to date in the province winning five seats — just one behind the Liberals. And the PCs could be hurt by years of provincial animosity towards their federal counterparts and experience significant losses, especially without any Conservative MPs to shore up their profile.

The balance of power in Newfoundland and Labrador’s House of Assembly has changed hands many times. Over the province’s 66 years in Canada, its provincial government has flopped back and forth between the Liberals twice — though with Joey Smallwood, the architect of Newfoundland and Labrador’s confederation with Canada, being Liberal that party’s history in government spans many more years in total.

The province’s Progressive Conservative party enjoyed years of widespread support under former premier Danny Williams, who was elected in 2003 and remained until he resigned in 2010. But their popularity in Newfoundland and Labrador has fallen since Williams’ departure, and the party has had three separate leaders — Kathy Dunderdale, Tom Marshall and current premier Davis — since his resignation.

At the same time, Newfoundland and Labrador’s relationship with the federal Conservatives under Stephen Harper went from lukewarm at best to occasionally hostile. The Conservative leader was accused, while prime minister, of making decisions that harmed the province and ignoring the concerns of its residents and political leaders. The day before the federal election, Davis said that letters he had written to the leaders of the main parties, asking their positions on issues of particular concern to the province, received responses from every leader except Harper.

“I think there’s no doubt that there was a lot of frustration here, as across the country,” Bittner says of the frustration of Newfoundland and Labrador’s recent premiers with the relationship between the federal government and the provinces. “I do think that people are kind of excited about this change and hoping that it will be to a different kind of government.”

At the same time, the total loss of opposition MPs from the province could also have consequences, Bittner says. An entirely Liberal Newfoundland and Labrador caucus means no opposition MPs in the House of Commons to argue against measures that are supported by the Liberal Party but not necessarily by all Newfoundlanders and Labradorians, she says.

But there are already signs that the province’s relationship with the federal government — famously frosty during Williams’ terms and little improved since — could improve under Trudeau, regardless of whether or not Newfoundland and Labrador elects a Liberal provincial government next month.

Trudeau promised during his campaign that he would send the provinces more money for skills training and to hold annual first ministers’ meetings. And he already invited the country’s premiers to attend the United Nations climate conference with him in late November.

Premier Davis won’t be making the trip to Paris on Nov. 30 with Trudeau and his provincial counterparts, however. He’s got an election fight already set for that day.