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MacKay dodging potential backbench bullet by jumping gun with early retirement

MacKay dodging potential backbench bullet by jumping gun with early retirement

Justice Minister Peter MacKay’s announcement today that he will not seek re-election does not signify that the Conservative Party’s ship is sinking. It does, however, hint that the Conservatives are unlikely to coast to another majority in this year’s federal election.

“He can read the writing on the wall,” said University of Toronto political science professor Nelson Wiseman. “And the writing on the wall is that even if the Conservatives for a minority government [after the next election, it is possible] that the Liberal and NDP will undo them.”

MacKay, who represents the riding of Central-Nova, has been in federal politics since 1997. He’s the former leader of the federal Progressive Conservative Party before it merged with the Conservative Alliance to form today’s governing Conservative Party of Canada.

MacKay will be adding his name to a growing list of Conservative cabinet ministers who have either resigned, John Baird, for example, or said they won’t seek re-election. That list includes the current Heritage Minister Shelly Glover and International Development Minister Christian Paradis.

Wiseman says that as long as rumours of a potential coalition between the Liberals and the NDP exist, the Conservatives should be concerned.

Recent polls from EKOS and Forum Research have put all three main political parties in, essentially, a three-way tie, with the NDP benefitting most from the shifts in national support.

Another poll released by EKOS today notes that Canadians wouldn’t lose much sleep over the possibility of a coalition government in Ottawa. In fact, many would actually prefer a coalition over another Conservative government run by Harper.

“By a margin of almost two-to-one, the voters of today would send Mr. Harper packing in favour of a coalition,” wrote EKOS CEO Frank Graves in a piece on iPolitics. “The government’s marketing line about the need for a “strong, stable Conservative government” is being greeted with deep skepticism.”

As Wiseman points out, life after politics can be a profitable one, particularly for former cabinet ministers. They often come equipped with a strong rolodex of contacts.

He stipulated, however, that their value is often much more marketable to national or global firms before suffering an electoral defeat.

“The worst job you can have after you’ve been a cabinet minister,” Wiseman said, “is to sit on the opposition benches.”