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Mulcair and Trudeau unable to steal Harper's spotlight: poll

The Conservatives under Stephen Harper are hanging on in the polls with a narrow lead over opposition leaders Tom Mulcair and Justin Trudeau, who just haven’t been able to steal the podium from the prime minister so far.

A recent poll from EKOS research has federal voting intention with the Conservatives on top, with about 32 per cent. The Liberals follow at almost 28 per cent and the NDP at about 24 per cent.

And according EKOS, the “faux horse race” to the next election has really only just begun, and not even in earnest. The public may start engaging more in federal issues now that the budget has been tabled in the House of Commons, a signal that the unofficial race to the election, expected Oct. 19, is on.

EKOS CEO Frank Graves tells Yahoo Canada News last week that the Conservatives, with their PR skills and funds for government advertising, are winning the framing war.

Last week’s budget, too, serves as a positive for getting the public’s attention.

“I think it does deal with a lot of specific inducements, a kind of retail politics approach, to specific segments where they have to shore up support. And … they work,” Graves says.

“Considering what people are following, it is quite significant how much announcements around the economy and the budget have captured public attention”, notes the EKOS release on the company’s recent poll.

“Public attention to these announcements outstrips even the venerable Stanley Cup Playoffs…The much ballyhooed Duffy trial is not gathering much attention yet and really isn’t a force at this time (although that may well change).”

The messages of NDP leader Tom Mulcair and Liberal leader Justin Trudeau “are barely registering above the noise floor and this is producing the deficit they suffer on the clarity of their plans for the country and individuals.”

According to the EKOS poll, a random sample of 3,850 Canadians over the age of 18 from April 15-21, the most important issue for Canadians is the economy and middle class progress.

The opposition has tried to paint the governing party as incapable, as harmful in this area, but haven’t quite been able to wrestle the “communications stranglehold the government now has on economic plans.”

Success in October may come down to the party that can convince Canadians of their ability to manage a struggling economy.

“I believe that [the Conservatives] are going to have a very tough challenge in convincing Canadians as they approach seeking a fifth term,” Graves said, “that in an economy where only less than one in five believes they’re doing better than when the government achieved its majority mandate” that the inducements in the federal budget will be enough.

“I don’t see how this very narrow lead that they currently have can sustain through until October,” he continued, “when people are once again focused on an extremely gloomy outlook on the economy, a high measures regime fatigue…which inevitably sets in or any government.”