What’s next for Toronto riding that may need by-election?

It looks like there could be a redo in the Etobicoke Centre riding of Toronto.

Liberal MP Borys Wrzesnewskyj, who lost to Conservative Ted Opitz by 26 votes to in last May's federal election, has convinced an Ontario Superior Court judge to throw out the results due to voting irregularities. Unless the Conservatives successfully appeal the decision, Opitz will cease to be the MP for the riding and Prime Minister Stephen Harper will have six months to call a by-election.

As is often the case, political analysts are getting a head start with their predictions of what a by-election could bring. The common refrain, at this point, is that sitting governments rarely win by-elections. But maybe this one could be different?

Etobicoke Centre has a history of shifting from a Conservative stronghold to a Liberal stronghold and back. From 1979 to 1993 the riding was represented by Conservative stalwart and Brian Mulroney-era finance minister Michael Wilson. Then, in 1993, Liberal Allan Rock won the riding convincingly with 54 per cent of the vote.

A local Conservative strategist told Postmedia News that the Liberals have two factors going against them this time around: Etobicoke Centre is now conservative-leaning Toronto Mayor "Rob Ford country," and NDP support, throughout the province, is growing.

"Governments don't normally win by-elections, but if the NDP does better [in the riding], the Conservative would probably win," he said.

Indeed, the NDP are polling higher in Ontario than they did in the federal election. According to the latest Harris Decima poll, the Conservatives stand at 32 per cent in Ontario, to 31 per cent for the NDP and 28 per cent for the Liberals.

Nevertheless, the strategist says all three party leaders have a lot on the line.

"It's really important for [Bob] Rae. If Rae wins the seat, there might be life left for the Liberals," he said.

"But if [NDP leader Thomas] Mulcair wins, that's a lot of momentum for him. If the Conservative wins, all this nonsense about Harper's lost the trust of the people, well he just won in fortress Toronto, again."

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