Notley clear winner of Alberta leaders debate: poll

Anyone looking at reaction to the face off between Alberta party leaders would be hard pressed to find a negative word about NDP leader Rachel Notley, who according to many came out as the clear winner of Thursday night’s leaders debate.

Notley was the main target of Alberta Premier Jim Prentice, suggesting she and her party pose the biggest threat to the longstanding Progressive Conservative reign in the province.

A poll from Mainstreet Technologies, conducted immediately after the debate and released one day later, has Notley on top. Most watchers of the debate — at 44 per cent — said Notley won the night.

“Notley went toe to toe with the Premier time and time again and more than stood her ground,” said Mainstreet Technologies president Quito Maggi in a press release.

The poll surveyed 2,322 people and has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

According to Mainstreet Technologies, 36 percent of debate watchers said Notley would make the best premier, while 32 per cent said Prentice would make best premier.

“A month ago, nobody outside of a core political base in Alberta knew who Rachel Notley was. Today 36% of Albertans believe she would make the best Premier with Jim Prentice at 32%,” Maggi noted. “This is nothing short of a political tsunami that cannot be underestimated.”

Maggi added that Prentice took a “bold approach” by mainly ignoring Wildrose leader Brian Jean and focusing primarily on attacking the NDP on their fiscal priorities. He was able to convince 25 per cent of those watching that he won the debate.

One comment from Prentice in that line of attack, however, could hurt him in the long run.

On the topic the the NDP’s plans to raise corporate taxes in the provinces, Prentice said to Notley: “I know math is difficult.” The comment was not received well online and criticism of the premier was swift.

Earlier this month, when Prentice called the election just after his finance minister tabled the province’s annual budget, few could have guessed the PCs would be facing the challenges they’re currently facing. Although Alberta’s economy is in dire straights, the election was expected to be, for the most part, a cakewalk for the premier.

The Wildrose was just getting its act together after the departure of many of its members, including leader Danielle Smith, under new leadership of former Conservative MP Brian Jean. The Liberals, too, were not in a state where they could present a formidable risk and opposition.

But another poll from Mainstreet Technologies released this week, ahead of the debate, put the PCs, NDP and Wildrose very close in support among decided voters.

The Wildrose were at 35 per cent, NDP at 31 per cent and the Progressive Conservatives 25 per cent.

The question now is whether the debate, and Notley’s success, will have any impact on voter intention, and in what direction Albertans choose to take the province when they cast their ballots on May 5.

“The good news for Prentice and the PCs is that 37% of Albertans believe they will win the election compared to just 26% for Notley and the NDP and 19% for Jean and the Wildrose,” Maggi said.

“Whether this number reflects PC overconfidence or simply reflects a population that is accustomed to PC governments after 43 years of rule, is too early to tell.”