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Ontario election polls show uncertainity among voters

About three weeks into the Ontario election campaign, the opinion polls have confirmed just two things:

Number 1: There is consensus as to how Ontarians plan to vote - the polls are all over the map. Ipsos Reid has the Tories with a lead; Forum and Ekos have the Liberals ahead; while Abacus had the two parties in a virtual dead heat.

Number 2: a lot of Ontarians are still uncertain about how they plan to vote.

In their most recent survey, for example, Ipsos found that 19 per cent of those surveyed were still undecided while those that were decided were open to changing their minds before the June 12th election.

"A majority (53 per cent) of current Tory voters are ‘absolutely certain’ that this is the party that they will support on June 12," noted their press release, "compared to 42 per cent of NDP voters, 37 per cent of Liberal voters, and 25 per cent of those who would vote for another party."

Ekos Research found a similar number of 'undecideds' while Abacus noted comparable attitudes in terms of swing voters.

The numbers — the only consistent numbers in the polls — suggest that this election is far from over and that none of the parties have gained any real traction.

[ Related: Comparing and contrasting the party platforms in the Ontario election ]

The number of swing voters straddling between the two progressive parties might explain why Kathleen Wynn has continually attacked the NDP with a lot of vigour: The grits first attack ad, after all, was titled "Andrea Horwath: Not for real".

Their modus operandi — for the rest of the campaign — will be to push aside the New Democrats and try to make this a battle between them and the Progressive Conservatives.

We got a preview of that on Friday.

"There is a very stark choice that is confronting people right now in Ontario," Wynne said at a campaign event in Toronto, according to the Canadian Press.

"On June 12 people will be choosing between our party, that has put forward a plan that is very comprehensive...and a plan that the Conservatives are putting forward that really starts with cutting and tearing down much of what has been built."

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