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Ontario by-elections poised to be political game changers

While the national media myopically focuses its attention on the Quebec election, this week, two other elections could also have significant ramifications to Canada's political landscape.

On September 6, voters in Kitchener-Waterloo and Vaughan will head to the polls in two provincial by-elections.

These are not your typical by-elections.

If the Liberals win both, they will form a virtual majority government for the first time since the October 2011 provincial election. If the Tories or NDP win just one, then it's back to the status-quo: a dysfunctional legislature trying to manage Canada's largest economy.

The gravity of the by-elections has some at Queen's Park wondering if they could spell the end for either Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty or Tory chief Tim Hudak.

"The fortunes of two leaders are tied to the votes," the Sun News Network's Christina Blizzard wrote recently.

"If PC leader Tim Hudak can't hold on to Kitchener-Waterloo, there'll be pressure within the party for him to move on.

"For Dalton McGuinty, either a riding loss or gain will mean he can finally call it quits and move on — making way for a leadership contest that couldn't happen in the present minority situation."

The pollsters predict a close race in at least one of the ridings.

In Kitchener-Waterloo, where the PCs are the incumbent party, the Tories are at 34 per cent support, while the Liberals and NDP are tied at 30 per cent, according to the results of a Forum Research poll published in the Toronto Star two weeks ago.

In Vaughan, another Forum poll pegged the Liberals at 47 per cent support, the Tories at 36 per cent and the NDP at only 9 per cent.

History of Ontario by-elections:

Straightgoods.ca published a study from the Inside Queen's Park newsletter about the outcomes of all Ontario provincial by-elections held from 1977 to 2011.

Of the 48 by-elections in that period of time, the incumbent party has won 34 times.

Another interesting statistic is that the government of the day has only won 15 of the 48.

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