Quebec independence movement a big election loser

Twenty years after Canadians awaited the results of the Quebec referendum, the sovereigntist movement is facing a crisis of faith.

An abysmal result for the Bloc Québécois in the federal election has spurred a new round of soul-searching.

Four out of five Quebecers who voted checked the ballot box beside the name of a federalist candidate. The Bloc garnered just 19.3 per cent of the popular vote in the province and elected only 10 MPs — two short of official party status.

Of course, it could have been worse. In 2011, the Bloc was reduced to two MPs from 47 in the wave that launched the New Democrats into official Opposition.

“Support for the independence movement has been steadily declining over the last several years,” Philippe Couillard, Quebec’s Liberal premier, declared following the federal vote.

In hindsight, maybe the writing was on the wall when the Bloc dusted off retired leader Gilles Duceppe to lead the party into the election.

A CROP survey of Quebecers aged 18 to 24 conducted last year for La Presse found that just 16 per cent supported the Parti Québécois, the provincial face of Quebec separatism. Sixty-nine per cent said they would vote “no” if a referendum on Quebec sovereignty were held today.

And 65 per cent of the newest generation of Quebec voters said the debate on the future of Quebec is outdated.

Provincially, the Parti Québécois (PQ) has not fared much better of late.

The party’s vote share has dropped from 35.7 per cent in 2008 to 25.3 in 2014. Just 30 Parti Québécois members were elected to the provincial Liberals’ 70 in last year’s provincial election.

But PQ Leader Pierre-Karl Péladeau quickly cast off any suggestion that the federal results reflect less support for Quebec independence.

“Dismissal of Stephen Harper by Canadians and Quebecers was the main motivation of voters. And they were right,” Péladeau wrote on his Facebook page in the days after the vote.

His federal counterpart, now departed Bloc Québécois leader Duceppe, was more circumspect.

“In the history of a people, there are highs and lows,” Duceppe said as he announced his resignation, having lost his own riding. “As sovereigntists, we have a duty to never, never abandon our convictions.”

Bernard Descôteaux, publisher of the Quebec nationalist newspaper Le Devoir, called the election night results “a shock to the sovereignty movement.”

The symbolism of a Trudeau at the helm, the “historic enemy of sovereigntists” again in power, could escape no one, he wrote.

“The result of the ballot of 19 October signals the need for in-depth reflection within the sovereignty movement that should go beyond strategies around the referendum calendar,” Descôteaux wrote.

“We should understand the reasons for this lack of interest from younger and older to Quebec sovereignty.” Answering such questions is all the more urgent, he wrote, as “the federalist front is reinforced by the victory of the Liberal Justin Trudeau. Both Quebec City and Ottawa are now in the power of hard federalists who will do anything to promote the merits of federalism….”

Michel Seymour, an author and philosophy professor at the Université de Montréal and declared sovereigntist, says the future of the nationalist cause in Quebec is largely dependent on the rest of Canada.

“Is Canada prepared to recognize the existence of a Quebec nation in the Canadian Constitution?” Seymour said to Yahoo Canada News.

“Is Canada ready to recognize in the Constitution that for this reason the province of Quebec should have a special status in the federation?”

Yes, there have been many setbacks for Quebec nationalism, Seymour wrote on his Facebook page, including but not limited to the failure of the Meech Lake and Charlottetown accords and the 1980 and 1995 referendums.

But the nationalist movement has not tried everything, he said. Forty per cent of the Quebec population still believes that constitutional reform is possible, he said.

Quebec still needs decentralization of power and the ability to opt out of federal programs in areas of exclusive provincial jurisdiction, Seymour said. Canada must recognize the province’s domain in matters of language, immigration, employment insurance, culture and telecommunications, he said.

“If Canada was ready to make significant political gestures like these, the national question would be resolved in the very long term,” Seymout said.

“Unfortunately, Justin Trudeau is going to deny the existence of the Quebec nation.”