The state of the NDP, three years after the death of Jack Layton

Is the glass half full or half empty?

Friday marks the third anniversary of the death of Jack Layton who succumbed to cancer just months after leading the NDP to official opposition status.

From a glass half empty point of view, in 2014 the federal New Democrats have yet to recover.

If you believe the political punditry, the party faces a score of challenges heading into the next election.

[ Related: Quebec NDP MP Sana Hassainia defects over Mideast position ]

Last week, Toronto Star writer Chantal Hebert wrote about a growing "unease" within the party -- some of that unease surfaced, on Wednesday, when Quebec MP Sana Hassainia quit the NDP caucus over the party's position about the Israeli-Palestine conflict.

What's worse — for the NDP — is that she also got scored some blows against current leader Thomas Mulcair on her way out the proverbial door.

"For me, a party leader should be loved like Jack Layton and not feared," Hassainia, wrote in her blog adding that she was punished for supporting Brian Topp in the NDP leadership race.

"Today, I have the courage to make a significant gesture, to take a weight off my shoulders and stand by my convictions."

[ Related video: Tom Mulcair says NDP's Israel-Palestine stance is 'nuanced' ]

This was the fourth NDP defection since the 2011 election: Lise St-Denis joined the Liberals prior to Mulcair's leadership saying that her constituents "voted for Jack Layton."

Claude Patry bolted to the Bloc Quebecois saying that he was a sovereignist and didn't agree with the NDP's position on the Muskrat Falls hydro-electric project.

And, in 2012, MP Bruce Hyer defected — after being removed from a shadow cabinet post — suggesting that Mulcair didn't seem willing to co-operate with other parties on important issues.

"One of the jobs of any new leader is to unite their party, and there are different ways to do that," Hyer, now a Green MP, said at the time.

"Being excluded from any position was a clear message that my constituents will be muzzled."

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While there is certainly some unease about the leader's style, he's doing yeoman's work.

Mulcair has built the party into a disciplined well-oiled opposition. He's put together an impressive team — both on the front benches and behind the scenes — that is professional and efficacious as any other party's. Moreover, he has proven himself to be an effective and forceful orator in the House of Commons in opposition to the Harper government.

His strong performance, however, hasn't translated into tangible success.

In the most recent batch of four byelctions — in June — the New Democrats weren't at all competitive and even lost their Trinity-Spadina seat which previously belonged to Layton's widow, Olivia Chow.

And nationally, the opinion polls suggest that NDP is destined to return to third-party status: In his most recent compilation of polling averages, polling analyst Eric Grenier suggests that, if an election were held today, the New Democrats would likely win only 55 seats.

Invariably, New Democrat insiders will offer their spin on those numbers. Brian Topp, who ran the 2011 campaign for the NDP, suggests that the opinion polls are actually pretty positive for them.

"Jack Layton went into every one of his four election campaigns in the mid-teens in the polls, and without a base in Quebec," he told Yahoo Canada News.

"We are going into this cycle in a considerably better position."

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Topp's defence notwithstanding, the New Democrats are also handicapped when it comes to finances and fundraising ability.

While they increased their year over year contributions in 2013, Canada's second party is raising third party type money.

The low fundraising numbers mean that the NDP will not be able to spend as much as the other parties for things such and pre-writ infrastructure, voter identification or staff. More importantly, they don't have an ad budget to steal the spotlight away from Liberal leader Justin Trudeau.

Undaunted, the party brass remains optimistic.

"With 97 MPs, and having finished 1^st or 2^nd in 224 ridings in the last election, the NDP is the party best positioned to defeat and replace Stephen Harper’s Conservatives in 2015," Karl Bélanger, the leader of the opposition's principal secretary, told Yahoo Canada News.

"We know we need to keep working hard to persuade and convince people to vote for NDP candidates."

Moreover, Bélanger referenced a recent Ekos Research poll which had Mulcair atop an approval rating list.

"Canadians see in Tom Mulcair a strong leader who is in it for the right reasons. That’s why Tom Mulcair is connecting with Canadians by proposing common sense solutions to the issues families are facing in their daily lives, while standing up against Stephen Harper and his policies," he said.

"Unlike Justin Trudeau, who lacks experience and has repeatedly shown his lack of judgement, Tom Mulcair is ready and he has the leadership and the experience needed to deliver a government Canadians can trust to work for them."

What do you think?

Is the NDP in good shape heading into the 2015 election? Or, are they worse off than they were three years ago upon Jack Layton's death?

Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below.

(Photo courtesy of The Canadian Press)

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