After the post-attack 'kumbaya' moment, when will it be politics as usual in Ottawa?

The hug fest Thursday in the House of Commons, one day after a lone gunman stormed the Centre Block, probably marked a kumbaya high point in the normally fractious chamber.

It was a perfectly natural emotional release. The MPs, including Prime Minister Stephen Harper, had a close shave the day before as Michael Zehaf Bibeau ran past their full caucus rooms before being cornered and killed outside the Commons library by Sergeant-at-Arms Kevin Vickers. They came together in their relief at being spared.

But how long will it take before the attack, which claimed the life of a reservist guarding the nearby National War Memorial, becomes fodder for the parties’ campaign machinery heading into next October’s federal election?

Veterans organizers of past national campaigns tell Yahoo Canada News it’s far too soon for anyone to exploit the incident to score political points.

“I think everybody’s going to be extremely cautious in dealing with this in an overtly partisan way,” said Brad Zubyk, who started with the NDP but has since worked on B.C. and federal Liberal campaigns.

“I don’t think anybody is looking to exploit it at this point. I think they’re going to wait and see where the public is at. Right now there’s a coming together and that naturally happens.”

Zubyk’s opinion was reinforced by a senior Liberal campaigner who said now is not the time to bring politics into it.

A former top Harper aide agreed.

“If anybody’s looking at gaining a couple of points in the polls over this, they’re focused on the wrong thing,” Dimitri Soudas, Harper’s former director of communications, told Yahoo Canada News.

“I’m 100 per cent confident that the government right now, the Prime Minister’s Office, security services, intelligence services and all those on the political side quite frankly are focused on the aftermath of what happened [Wednesday].”

[ Related: Stephen Harper says “Canada will never be intimidated” after attack in Ottawa ]

But it seems inevitable that it will figure into a larger narrative about who best can keep Canada safe. A cynic might wonder if somewhere in the furthest back of back rooms the cold political calculus is already underway, especially at Conservative headquarters, where national security is a major electoral theme.

“The two events that took place this week, if they don’t have an effect on public opinion of hardening support for the effort against ISIS, I’ll be amazed,” said Warren Kinsella, a veteran of the Liberal war room in the Jean Chretien era.

Indeed, an Angus Reid poll released Friday found half of those polled considered terrorism and the Islamic State (aka ISIS or ISIL) their top concern. The polling happened to coincide with this week’s attacks.

Kinsella said he’d be surprised if the parties are not preparing their own polls.

“You know how these guys are. They’re a little nervous about being out there while emotions are so inflamed,” said Kinsella. “They’ll wait a couple days but somebody’s going to go in the field and say ‘what do you think?’ “

It’s looking increasingly like the incident was less a cooly plotted attack by a committed Islamic extremist than the work of a pathetic loser.

Zehaf Bibeau was a mentally unstable, drug-addicted petty criminal who’d developed a warped view of his Muslim religion and had an email exchange with someone on the RCMP’s radar.

Somehow he illegally obtained a lever-action Winchester 30-30, a cowboy rifle (he was reportedly banned from owning firearms) and used it to shoot Cpl. Nathan Cirillo in the back as he stood guard at the cenotaph before driving to Parliament Hill.

But coupled with the vehicular assault on two uniformed soldiers outside an office in St. Jean-Sur-Richeleau, Que., by a “radicalized” Quebec man, the attack in the nation’s capital fits neatly into the Conservatives’ view that Canada has become a target for Islamic militants and needs a firm hand at the wheel to counter it.

“Without being political, I would say that on the issue of who do you feel safer with, who do you think will protect our country both from domestic threats and threats that come from abroad, the short and crystal-clear answer will be Mr. Harper,” said Soudas.

[ Related: Majority of Canadians not confident in Canada’s security services ability to stop acts of terror: poll ]

The policy divisions among the three main parties is well known, Zubyk said. Trudeau and NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair may suffer now from their unwillingness to support the armed intervention in Iraq, instead pushing for a humanitarian role for Canada, Kinsella noted.

“They certainly seem to be offside with public opinion,” he said, but added they could ultimately be vindicated if Canada’s Iraq mission drags on without signs of progress.

The Ottawa and Quebec attacks are not pivotal but are pieces of the picture voters will consider, the former strategists said.

“In an election year, which is what we’ve begun, everything that goes on in politics has something to do with the eventual outcome on election day,” said Rick Anderson, who worked for the Liberals in the 1980s before helping build the Reform Party, which morphed into the current Conservatives.

“It goes without saying that anything that’s making news and reaching people’s attention is a factor.”

Commentator Lawrence Martin said the incident could benefit Harper, who has trailed Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau in the polls and top-down style of government is increasingly seen as a liability going into election.

“The event played perfectly into the Harper government’s security agenda,” Martin wrote Thursday on iPolitics.

“It comes right when the Tories are introducing new anti-terror legislation. It comes in the wake of his decision to join the air combat mission against Islamic State. It has the effect of making that decision look adroit.”

A lot will depend on how the parties frame their messaging in the coming months.

“As a general principle, Conservatives always tend to do better on law-and-order stuff, get tough on terrorism,” said Kinsella.

“But the risk for them is that as a consequence of being in government they knew or ought to have known more about this guy or both guys in fact. Then it doesn’t become quite as positive.”

Soudas said he expects the Conservatives to stress their record of action on different files, from the economy to immigration reform and crime.

“We’ve done politics through policy and that’s why we’ve been re-elected three times and that is what’s going to be the foundation of our re-election in 2015,” he said.

Soudas wouldn’t be drawn on whether he thinks the Tories will resurrect attack ads designed to make Trudeau look wishy-washy, like the one where he talks about considering the root causes of terrorism.

There’s certainly fresh fodder available, such as his glib remark in the Commons equating deployment of CF-18 jets to Iraq to a display of manhood and suggesting Harper’s ego led him to join the coalition. The Conservatives have already used the CF-18 remark as a fundraising tool, the Hill Times reported earlier this month.

“Mr. Trudeau has made a mistake on that topic, now twice,” Anderson observed.

[ Related: Ottawa shootings to prompt security review, fortifications of public buildings ]

Detailed of this week’s attacks will be largely forgotten as Canadians get closer to voting day, he said, but they will become part of a larger picture used to assess the characters and personalities of the leaders.

“So the things that are happening these days, which are a time when people are paying closer than normal attention, are factoring into how people evaluate these leaders,” said Anderson, who added all three performed well in the hours following Wednesday’s attack.

There’s been speculation in recent weeks that Harper might call a snap election to exploit a forecast budget surplus and stabilizing economy before the government has to decide next spring whether to extend the six-month Iraq mission.

The veteran strategists Yahoo Canada News spoke with discounted that prospect, though Kinsella wouldn’t rule it out completely if polling suggests voters approve of his handling of the national security file.

“I’d be surprised if he isn’t tempted to go ahead because this week he’s looked pretty good,” said Kinsella. “The question is whether he can sustain that into next week and the week after that, and the week after that.”