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Tories and Liberals tied, NDP down slightly in new poll

Few could have predicted that months before the expected Oct. 19 election the three main political parties would be practically neck and neck in support across the country. But recent polls — poll after poll, after poll — are showing that this trend isn’t slowing down, and point to the most likely scenario of a Conservative minority government this fall.

Forum Research released a poll Monday putting voting intention for the Conservatives, NDP and Liberals within four percentage points of each other.

According to Forum, the Conservatives sit at 31 per cent, the NDP at 28 per cent — a slight dip from the company’s last survey — and the Liberals at 32 per cent. The sampling of public opinion of 1156 Canadians is very similar to results from the company’s previous survey released mid-May.

Transposing these numbers onto a 338 seat House of Commons, the Conservatives would have a minority on their hands with 19 fewer seats than they have now, given how their votes are spread across the country. The Liberal Party would form the opposition with 101 seats and the NDP would, according to Forum, hold the balance of power with 83 seats. The Greens, Bloc Quebecois and an independent would all take one seat.

Other survey results released recently suggest parties are standing, or running to the finish line, on shifting sands.

A poll released last week from Abacus had a similar three way horse race with the Conservatives at 31 per cent and the NDP and Liberals at 28 per cent; the Conservatives had shed 5 points and the NDP gained 4 since the firm’s last survey.

According to Abacus, there’s been some movement in voter intention from the 60 plus crown — a population that Conservatives have relied on for some time.

“Today’s numbers indicate that the desire for change in Ottawa is rising,” said Bruce Anderson, Abacus chairman, in a press release.

“There is a larger potential for the NDP brand to consolidate the ‘change vote’ than we have seen in the past. However, the Liberal brand is highly competitive.”

He added that the results are sobering for Conservative election planners.

“While our data had shown an uptick in support based on the recent budget, this effect has dissipated. With 20 weeks to Election Day the incumbents are struggling to build enthusiasm around their economic record or plans.”

Another series of results from a survey released by EKOS last week also put the three parties in a close race, but with the NDP finding itself ahead of the Conservatives and Liberals.

The poll also suggested there is growing antipathy towards the governing party and its leader, and more openness among Canadians for some sort of coalition scenario between the Liberals and the NDP.