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Tory support sliding but next fed election still anybody's game: poll

Tory support sliding but next fed election still anybody's game: poll

Like the best races, whether horses or honourable members of Parliament, the contenders for this year’s federal election are on the move.

The starting gun has yet to fire but positions are shifting, along with voter intentions, and one of the latest polls puts the three main parties in a tight race on a national scale.

A surge in Conservative support after Prime Minister Stephen Harper announced strict new security measures last fall appears to have evaporated, says the poll from Ekos.

”The voter landscape is shifting in ways that do not appear to favour Stephen Harper’s Conservatives who now find themselves under 29 points for the first time since the security bounce from last October propelled them into a small but significant lead,” says the poll.

“They now (insignificantly) trail Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and see less than a six-point margin over a clearly rejuvenated NDP.”

Nationally, 30.1 per cent of those polled say they would vote Liberal, 28.7 per cent Conservative and 22.0 per cent New Democrat. The Green Party had the support of 9.2 per cent of respondents.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The Conservative slide comes thanks to a worsening economic outlook and a weakening emotional connection between Harper and voters.

In fact, the telephone/cellphone survey of 3,606 Canadian households found 28 per cent felt anger toward Harper and 34 per cent described their emotional response to the prime minister as “discouraged.”

“… and the trajectory is one of decline here,” the poll says.

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is seen as “the least infuriating leader,” says the poll, which may be about as good as it gets for a politician these days.

The poll points out that the results of the survey conducted the first week of April put the Tories and Liberals in pretty much the same positions they were in ahead of the last federal election, which vaulted the Conservatives from a minority to majority government. The Liberals captured just 76 seats.

The NDP, though, are in a much stronger position than they were ahead of the 2008 vote, the poll says.

Regionally, the Liberals are surging in Quebec and Ontario – the two provinces with 59 per cent of the seats in the House of Commons.

A separate poll of Ontario voters by Innovative Research Group found the Liberals had the support of 39 per cent of decided voters, ahead of the Conservatives with 37 per cent and the NDP with 17 per cent. The Green Party was the choice of seven per cent, according to reports.

Predictably, the Conservatives had the greatest support among men and those over 50. The Liberals and New Democrats were in close competition for votes among women and those under 50.

Canadians are slated to go to the polls in October, though the government could drop the writ any time.

“The fates of the Liberals and NDP are less clear, but it looks more likely now that the next government will not be a Conservative government, but obviously this is all subject to change,” the poll says.