Wacky numbers in Ontario election not the demise of country’s pollsters

Don't give up on Canada's pollsters just yet.

It's true opinion polls for the Ontario election have been all over the map.

During the summer the predictions became so wacky Ipsos Reid's Darrel Bricker felt it necessary to pen an open letter calling out "marginal" pollsters and media who published their questionable results.

On Wednesday, the National Post's Kelly McParland jumped on the pollster and media-bashing bandwagon.

"Reading yesterday's news reports on the Ontario election, I learned that the race was neck and neck, Dalton McGuinty was up 10 points and about to win a third majority, NDP Leader Andrea Horwath would likely hold the balance of power and the contest was too close to call. One report suggested both that the race was tied, but McGuinty might still "eke out" a majority," he wrote.

"No wonder voters are confused."

One of the great equalizers in the polling industry, however, is results can always be measured.

The Marketing Research and Intelligence Association, which represents market research companies in Canada, released a report titled "There's No Margin of Error on the Truth" in an effort to debunk claims the polling industry "is having a crisis of confidence."

The report shows the final week polling results came very close to actual results in both 2006 and 2008 federal elections and suggests having so many polls throughout a campaign leads to a better system in which politicians find it harder to spin their messages.

Andrew Heard, an associate professor at Simon Fraser University, compared opinion poll results of the 2011 federal election campaign to actual election results on his website. He found the pollsters' final projections were accurate.

Polls do vary throughout a campaign because of different polling methodologies, sample size and other factors.

They also vary because of changing opinions.

But the evidence clearly shows our major pollsters are fairly accurate.

(Reuters Photo)