Advertisement

War against ISIS a wedge election issue: analyst

War against ISIS a wedge election issue: analyst

As the Harper government seeks to extend its mission in Iraq and expand into Syria, there’s no doubt the mission and Canada’s role in fighting the Islamic State will play out as an issue in this year’s federal election.

Thomas Juneau, from the University of Ottawa, tells Yahoo Canada News missions extensions are best done in shorter terms — six months by six months, for example — because it provides more flexibility to pull out or change course; except when heading into an election year.

“Renewing the mission for 12 months I think was the right thing to do,” he says. “Having a renewal debate, basically, right before the election, that would have been wrong … it would have been so politicized as to be out of control.”

Juneau says, however, the war will continue to be a contentious issue during the upcoming federal election campaign.

"We have to assume that from the Conservative perspective, they expect the NDP to oppose and the NDP’s constituency to oppose,” he says.

“A bit like with C-51 and was the case six months ago, this is a wedge issue, in the sense that Conservatives are hoping to squeeze the Liberals in the middle.”

Canada has been at war since October, part of a U.S.-led alliance fighting terrorist group ISIS, also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. The government has said so far that troops have only been engaged in airstrikes, and not on-the-ground combat, although opposition parties have questioned this claim.

“ISIL has made it clear that it targets by name Canada and Canadians,” Harper said in the House of Commons. “Why? It is for the same reason it targets so many groups, in fact for the same reason it targets most of humanity.”

In the terrorist group’s view, he continued, “anyone who does not accept its perverted version of religion should be killed. It is as self-evident to them as it seems insane to us, but it is far from an idle threat.”

Both the Liberals and NDP signaled they would not support the extension plan.

The NDP has been critical and opposed to military action from the very beginning. In the House of Commons on Tuesday, responding to the prime minister, Tom Mulcair said there has been no clear objective in the mission, and no clear exit strategy. This, he said, puts Canadian troops at risk.

Liberal leader Justin Trudeau — after much speculation about where he stands — said his party would also not be supporting the government’s motion.

“The Conservatives have no exit strategy beyond an illusory end date set for next March. Involvement in direct combat in this war does not serve Canada’s interests, nor will it provide a constructive solution to the catastrophic humanitarian crisis in this region,” Trudeau said.

Legalities of extension

Peggy Mason of the Rideau Institute tells Yahoo Canada News extending the mission to Syria is illegal under international law without UN security council authority or a request for security assistance from the Assad government in Syria.

“Even the latter, which is the basis on which we are in Iraq, is a rather gray area,” Mason noted in an email.

“To be on a firm legal footing, there should be UN Security Council authorization,” she continued. “Article 51 of the UN Charter, the inherent right of self-defence in the face of imminent attack, does NOT apply. Canada is under no such imminent threat.”

Complicating matters is what entering Syria will mean for perceptions here at home.

"An extension of the mission to Syria may be a bad mistake as Canadians will see atrocities by Assad and hear news that we are helping him by attacking his biggest opponent,” Mason says.

Juneau admitted that the federal government hasn’t been clear about an exit strategy or about its efforts regarding a renewed political process in Iraq and a peace process in Syria.

But the opposition’s concerns aren’t valid to the extent of opposing the mission entirely. Nobody, he suggests, should be expecting that ISIS would be defeated within the first six months, nor within the next six months.