Canada Politics‘The world is a mess’ but that’s probably good news for Stephen Harper’s re-election hopes
There is conflict — again — between Israel and Hamas.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to exercise his geo-political muscle in Ukraine. Violence has erupted in Libya prompting Canada to move its diplomats. The Taliban are re-emerging in Afghanistan.
And, in Iraq, jihadist Sunni fighters continue to cause angst.
All the international instability has spurred former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright to come out and say "The world is a mess."
While this may sound a little churlish, a world in a 'mess' is good news for Stephen Harper's Conservatives and their chances at re-election for 2015.
[ Related: International police team turns back from Ukraine crash site as fierce fighting breaks out ]
Over the past several weeks, the Conservative government has been resolute in their unconditional support for Israel. Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird has put regular statements chiding the "international terrorist group Hamas" for its actions.
With regard to Russia, it could be argued that no other world leader has come close to matching Stephen Harper's verbal lashings of Putin. Last weekend, he took the unusual step of publishing an op-ed in the Globe and Mail explaining Canada's position with on the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17.
"Although we may refer to militants in eastern Ukraine as “pro-Russian separatists,” we are not confused by who, and what, they really are: an extension of the Russian state. They derive their material, political and logistical support from the Putin regime, and their criminal aggression and recklessness reflect the values of their Russian benefactors. Some have suggested that these agents of the Putin regime may have shot the plane down by accident. We do not, and may never, know. But accident or no accident, the blood is on the hands of the men who took such a risk and of the government that encouraged them to do so."
Some will say that Harper and Baird are taking principled stands — articulating Canadian values.
Others — political cynics — suggest that Tory strategist are making a play for specific voter segments.
As explained by journalist Lawrence Martin at iPolitics, there are 1.2 million Ukrainian-Canadians and 380,000 in the Canadian Jewish community who are very impressed with Harper's stance.
[ Related: Strike hits Gaza park, killing at least 10 as Israelis, Palestinians trade blame ]
Regardless of the motivation, however, a right leaning political consultant says that bad news in the international community is generally good news for the incumbent party.
"If Canadians, in 2015, see the world as a dangerous and unstable place, this will work to Harper's advantage," Gerry Nicholls told Yahoo Canada News.
"Certainly, his reputation as a tough guy, who stands up to dictators like Putin, will contrast well with Justin Trudeau's 'rainbow and lollipops' persona. In times of trouble, voters want leaders who are strong, not Carebears.
"That's why Harper wrote that Globe op ed. He wanted to make his position clear and unequivocal. Now Trudeau either matches Harper's rhetoric -- which would not fit his overall communication strategy -- or he sounds less resolute."
[ Related: ‘We have stopped Hudak, Harper is next,’ Ontario union leader Sid Ryan says ]
The Nanos Research tracking numbers seem to support Nicholls' theory.
Nanos develops its brand rankings based on four different questions — about voting intentions and perceptions — about the federal parties and their leadership.
While the Trudeau Liberals still lead overall, the latest numbers show Harper and the Conservatives making significant gains, in the past 4 weeks, in both the 'preferred prime minister' and 'party to consider' categories.'
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